Well, the basis for my thinking is that the global economy will not be supporting the type of growth that would sustain the demand/consumption of ICs to require a long period of CAPEX. Do you think 2005 is going to be a good year for the economy? Does record consumer debt levels, even after the refi boom that no one really used to shore up their personal balance sheets, record deficits, structural imbalances etc concern you? I am thinking on a macro level and I give this so called "recovery" about a 20% chance of sustaining itself into 2005, so semis being a cyclical industry, it will be hard for IC management to spend the big bucks on idle capacity, history has shown that orders can drop off significantly and quickly.
The market isn't obeying history either, usually during a trough for the semi-equip cycle they get down to 1X-1.5X book and sales and they never got that low this past time, maybe the market will decide to ramp 'em to 20X this time around, I don't know, the market is insane and irrational most of the time.
People questioned my thinking here on this board in 2001, when I stated I didn't think the next upturn would happen until mid-2002, and I don't mind that, that what these boards are for, the exchange of ideas, strategies and opinions. And my opinion now is that we won't have the strongest upcycle after the weakest down cycle.
A-M-S |
