Hi nspolar,
I got in USPIX in a big way this week. Whether this is an intermediate top or the final top, I think some $ is to be made on a down move that starts around these levels.
I still can't see a clear count on the NDX. If it ain't clear, then I don't use e-wave. But on the S&P, it looks pretty damned clear to me that we are seeing the latter part of an ABC correction. I choose the Mar03 low as the beginning of A, because that is the start of the move that broke above multi-year down channel. So (rough numbers), 785 to 1015 = A, 1015 to 960 = B, 960 to (move equal to A) 1190 = C. A high volatility zone around C makes sense to me, so I am in the camp that says we go down a bit before a final push up. In any case, we are close enough to 1190 that I can sleep with a big USPIX position, but would be seriously disappointed if the down started here without me onboard.
An alternative view is that we see some really serious volatility and an inverted mirror-image of the Oct02 low. That would get it down to 1020 (resistance area, coincidentally) before a final push to 1205. In that scenario, S&P peaks in July, and bounces around violently until the post-election crash. If all that sounds confusing ... take an S&P weekly chart, turn it upside down, and flip it to the left pivoting on Aug03, and you might see what things will look like going forward from Aug 03.
In the latter scenario, there is some serious moolah to be made trading USPIX going forward.
FWIW from a sophomore.
crusty |
