Step1 - gold vs. base metals.
I am starting to ask me some questions: if China is in an overinvestment/over capacity phase, there will not be much support from them in base metals as they would start to dump what they currently have and put pressure on their sources.
For the broader market, I cannot reconciliate a rally into elections, while markets continue their rise: a correction (not a new low) would be in order to get a better elections rally.
In that case, I expect all materials mining and producers equities to move lower with the broader market.
I do not expect gold to outperform, rather to be priced according to lower Dollars and I don't see why the other metals would not move the same way.
I also could imagine PoG rising while metals equities would correct: would normalize the multiples.
Really, I have no plan B for this Spring and would maybe be better cash until I make myself an opinion.
So far, I gladly would like a correction, but a correction could be the start of something broader (this economy is NOT improving, hedonically corected indicators are improving).
Then, the only safe holding would be things as the physical while shares would be tanking.
I really don't know yet.
Hence, no opinion, even humble <vbg>. |
