Hell Pezz, Report - Delayed:
I am back in Hong Kong, after 17 hours in the air and 12 hours in transit. My geewhizbang game-rig high-clock rate home desktop PC, the stationary command center by which I move my troops to move for or against various economic tribes and financial villages just updated my troop disposition.
This is the first time I have updated my order of battle since laboriously manually doing so Message 19702948
<<January 17th, 2004>>. I had been delinquent during my pilgrimage.
While I was on the airplane on January 13th, my broker sold Message 19692270 <<January 14th, 2004>> my Golar LNG finance.yahoo.com at NOK 124/shr, claiming a fortunate 43% profit over so many weeks since Message 19601861 <<December 16th, 2003>> - this pick is the brilliant spec of Anton, a cyber pal in London who lurks on this BBR thread;
On night of January 15th HK time when I was getting acquainted with Papeete, my broker sold Message 19702129 <<January 17th, 2004>> my Teekay Shipping uk.finance.yahoo.com at 59.50/shr, claiming a well-deserved profit of 34% since Message 19323643 <<September 19th, 2003>>;
On the same night, my broker sold my Frontline Shipping uk.finance.yahoo.com at USD 29.50/shr, claiming a justified 18% profit since Message 19578803 <<December 9th, 2003>>;
I believe there is still upside in the above shares, but for me, enough is enough, and I am afraid that the general market will soon show us the ugly side of the symmetry; the awful fall to last year's happy rise.
I was going to hold on to my high-yielding Knightsbridge Tanker and Nordic American Tanker, but thought about it some more and decided to go with the Force, to not confuse a short term trade with a longterm speculation, and give up probable yield for certain capital gain.
There are three announced new fleets being organized by Chinese companies, and I do not wish to be competing against the coming deflation in shipping, preferring to re-allocate the money to Australian oil/gas fields at the onset of commodity correction, latching onto inflation of the stuff that go into tankers.
On Tuesday January 20th Message 19714159 <<January 20th, 2004>> I sold my half a tranche of Knightsbridge Tanker at USD 16.8/shr, and after accounting for dividends 0.45/shr after withholding tax already received (probably more on the way), claim a civilized profit of 7.87 USD /shr or 84%, Message 19340317
<<September 24th, 2003
… I bought half a tranche of Knightsbridge Tanker uk.finance.yahoo.com at USD 9.38/shr>>
On the same night Message 19714159 <<January 20th, 2004>>, I also sold my dollop of Nordic American Tanker at USD 18.80/shr, and after accounting for dividend already received (again, probably more on the way), claim a gentle profit of USD 5.83/shr or 44%, Message 19323643
<<September 19th, 2003
… I bought a dollop of Nordic American Tanker uk.finance.yahoo.com at USD 13.34/shr>>
I consider my foray into shipping a success and hope to do it again, at 60% below current prices, when there is realization of a coming glut and after the above companies replace some of their older ships ;0)
Your comment Message 19702171 about NEM gave me a start, not because I was afraid of a gold correction, but because I was fearful that a general equity decline had gotten underway inconveniently while I am on vacation.
I spent Pacifique Franc 1,400 [EDIT: I find Bora Bora expensive. A bowl of admittedly good chicken soup at a non-descript roadside restaurant goes for about USD 22 - this is the downside of a sick accounting-base currency] worth of Internet time to ascertain that in fact there was only a so far tepid and technical USD rebound and a moderate physical gold correction.
I am not dealing with my feared severe general equity decline. Feared because I am neither positioned properly yet, nor am I at my command center.
The questions I am not bothering with are two, (a) when will there be a severe general equity decline, and (b) why was the physical gold correction more severe.
Happily, I am more prepared for a moderate gold correction (then I am ready for either a severe general equity decline or a severe physical gold correction)
Message 19587966
<<December 11th, 2003
Hello Pezz, Report:
… Will NEM back-track back to 40? Perhaps, but that will make my currently shorted NEM March covered Calls strike 50, 45, and 42.5 go worthless, and allow me to short NEM calls again once NEM tracks forward in this bull market for money printing.>>
So, on the night of the Tuesday January 20th my broker closed my open short position NEM March covered call strike 50 at USD 0.85/shr, locking in a needed profit of USD 2.05 per share Message 19543296
<<November 28th, 2003 … Shorted a dollop of NEM March covered Call strike 50 at 2.90>>
In the mean nasty time, my massive short NEM January Put strike 42.5 expired worthless to my opposite speculator, may peace be with him, wherever he is, which is probably not anywhere near me, and may joy be with what used to be his money, which is most assuredly in my account ;0) Message 19587966
<<December 11th, 2003
… I woke up during the middle of last night in my hotel room, from a dream in which I heard:
(a) Short NEM January Put strike 42.5 massively at USD 0.7/shr, because it is free money, and it will nicely balance off the current short NEM January [EDIT: my mistake, my calls are for March] covered Call strikes 40/42.5 in the portfolio … So I did, massively>>
I have always found win-win games to be missing that little bit of extra something, perhaps the special sauce called glee, when compared to win-lose games, of which on-line Unreal Tournament Last Man Standing Death Match is one, and option wagering is another.
Oops, almost got lost in the shuffle, my Annaly January Put strike 15 also expired worthless to my opposite number, allowing me to record a USD 0.60/shr gain. So, at least for this game round, my opposite number died so that I may live Message 19294508
<<September 11th, 2003>>.
If you are curious about what had happened to the other aspect (long equity, short covered calls) of the above trade, it was this Message 19622755 <<December 23rd, 2003>>.
So you see, it is a good house-keeping habit to raid the villages that one had before pillaged, because if it was worthwhile the first time, it is even better the second go-around due to the risk/reward change :0)
Oh, yes, on January 23rd, after I paid the hotel tab for my pilgrimage vacation in Bora Bora paradise but before I got on the airplane destined for the world's premier capitalist metropolis, I shorted two dollops of NEM June Put 37.5 at 1.75/shr and, for good measure, again shorted one dollop of same NEM June Put 37.5 at USD 1.85/shr Message 19727204 <<January 23rd, 2004>>.
I am prepared for NEM to technically correct all the way back to USD 35/shr, and should it dare to do so, I will be in the market, massively, for NEM 2006 January LEAP Calls strike prices @ …, in an 'all or nothing wager'.
I had noted to you before, I treated my NEM option positions as rental property or insurance portfolio (or, as Malcolm puts it, a 'birthright' pension scheme), and as such, I have been managing the overall position for 'rent' or 'premium' income and avoiding capital loss, and not so much for capital gains.
My attitude is about to change, as I believe the gold train, after the correction, will pull out of the station for good.
At the moment I have a bouquet of not altogether consistent NEM option trades outstanding.
Short NEM Feb Put 42.5 @ 1.05
Short NEM Mar covered Call 45 @ USD 2.60-2.65/shr.
Short NEM Mar covered Call 40 @ 3.80
Short NEM June Put 42.5 @ 1.90
Short NEM June Put 37.5 @ 1.75-1.80
Chugs, Jay |
