In Arizona, the 'First True Test'?
With Feb. 3 Nearing, State Has Undecided Bloc, No Favorite Son
By Evelyn Nieves
Washington Post Staff Writer
Sunday, January 25, 2004; Page A10
PHOENIX -- Rebecca Lieberman was standing in a sunken living room before maybe 20 people, very nearly begging. "The race is really open," she said. "We're taking this state very seriously. We want to win Arizona. We're working hard to win this thing. Please."
An hour later she was still taking questions, still unsure whether she had persuaded anyone at this house party to vote for her father, Sen. Joseph I. Lieberman (Conn.), in Arizona's Feb. 3 Democratic presidential primary. "Thanks for your grilling," she said. "I really appreciate your interest."
The Democrats have come a-courtin'. But Arizona, which relishes the wooing, is in no hurry to make a commitment. Voters here have watched weeks of television ads for Howard Dean and Wesley K. Clark, received thousands of vote-by-mail fliers from the Dean and Lieberman campaigns, and endured repeated phone calls from John F. Kerry's camp, among others. Yet, with less than two weeks to go before the primary, more than a third of voters are undecided, state Democratic leaders say.
The Democratic Party here is billing the state's earliest primary ever as the "first true test" of the 2004 presidential campaign. On Feb. 3, Arizona and six other states are holding primaries or caucuses: Delaware, Missouri, New Mexico, North Dakota, Oklahoma and South Carolina.
Democrats here say Arizona is the largest state where no candidate has a geographic connection and where the population is so diverse that it will test the candidates' ability to reach a wide range of voters.
Voters here seem to be waiting to be impressed. When Clark's wife, Gert, stumped here recently, she received a polite reception from an association of retired citizens, despite arriving with Hollywood stars Ted Danson and Mary Steenbergen.
"There is no favorite son here," said Paul Hegarty, executive director of the Arizona Democratic Party. "Out here in Arizona you have to put together a winning coalition of diverse groups."
The state has a significant Latino population, 25 percent, and a sizable older population, 18 percent over 60 years. A crucial swing state -- President Bill Clinton won in 1996, George W. Bush in 2000 -- Arizona is adding 400 residents a day, with a growing number of younger voters. It also houses five major military installations; veterans and military families are part of the electoral landscape, attractive targets for the Clark and Kerry campaigns.
Arizonans like politicians who drive down the middle of the road. But no candidate has a lock on any demographic group. And no one is sure whether the results of the Iowa caucuses a week ago or Tuesday's New Hampshire primary will have a significant effect here Feb. 3. The most recent polls, taken before the Iowa caucuses, showed Clark and Dean far ahead, with Lieberman running third. Only Clark and Dean were airing ads when the polls were taken. Lieberman has since started.
Clark and Lieberman, who skipped the Iowa caucuses, have campaigned in Arizona more than the other Democrats, with Lieberman making the most visits to the state, eight since November, including one quick stop less than two weeks ago. But Dean has spent more money and recruited more volunteers, and despite his absence from the state, Kerry has a large staff in place here.
Lieberman and Clark have been assuming that Dean, cast as the most liberal of the top candidates, would be the front-runner heading into Feb. 3. They have cast themselves as candidates of moderation, strong on security and defense and focused on key domestic issues that concern voters in Arizona, such as education, immigration and health care.
Kerry's victory in Iowa and lead in New Hampshire, however, have not changed the way the Clark and Lieberman campaigns are working here, both campaigns say.
"Our strategy has not changed one bit," said Mark Riddle, Clark's Arizona campaign director. The campaign has been off and running since mid-November; it maintains three offices in the state, a dozen paid staff and about 1,500 volunteers. "We have put in a lot of time, energy, resources and staff into this state," Riddle continued, "and we feel really good about where we are. We thought all along that Kerry had a hometown advantage in New Hampshire and [Sen. John] Edwards in South Carolina. But Arizona is the first state where no candidate has that edge, and we are doing very well here."
Lieberman's camp, which boasts the most statewide political endorsements (20) of all the candidates, is continuing its strategy of appearances by the candidate or his supporters, and of identifying voters, spokesman Ruben Pulido said. "The other campaigns that are just getting here have to realize that they're going to have to play catch-up," Pulido said. |
