Hi Rascal; Re: "I didn't want to invest in gold, I just wanted to find the guy who made the right calls on gold and interest rates and the dollar these last 3 years. I want to ask him what he thinks now."
Funny you should ask.
Bilow, August 3, 2000
I think that this company [ASL] is going to do fine. #reply-14160144
Bilow, July 13, 2001
Hi nutxspirit; I'm holding [ASL], gonna hold for a couple more years, what's there to post? Also picked up some cheap HL some time ago. #reply-16073427
Chart for ASL (an African gold company):
finance.yahoo.com
Chart for HL (an American silver / gold company):
finance.yahoo.com
I don't think that gold has topped out for the following reasons, maybe two of which have to do with our stupid foreign policies (not just Bush, our foreign policy errors are decades long):
(a) High US Government budget deficits.
(b) High US foreign trade deficits.
(c) Federal Reserve desperately printing money.
(d) Economic situation forces (a)-(c) to continue.
(e) World pissed off with US, so dollar drops.
I'd suggest holding until medium term interest rates in the US reach the double digit levels. This won't happen for years. The right time to sell gold is when the public is completely convinced that stocks are useless, as far as saving money for your retirement, that inflation is going to eat up all your cash and savings deposits, and that everyone must invest a healthy percentage of their assets in gold. At that time, stocks will again be the same incredible bargain that they were in 1982 (in terms of P/E or P/S or other fundamental ratios).
The metal is a good store of value, but more profits can be made by picking and choosing among the mining companies, as the above stock charts aptly demonstrate.
-- Carl |
