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Biotech / Medical : Biotech Valuation

CRSP 50.73

-5.2%

3:59 PM EST

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To: Biomaven who wrote (10147)	1/26/2004 6:06:32 PM
From: IRWIN JAMES FRANKEL	Read Replies (3) of 52153

>>There's this weird drop in broad measurements of money supply the last few months - in the past this has often foretold weakness in the equity markets. William Poole, President of the St. Louis Fed, commented that the FED did not understand the decline in ALL measures of MS over the last several months. We knew it was declining - but it surprised me that the FED seem not to understand why MS was declining. Bill Gross has stated he expects rising interest rates this year but stated that 200bp would be the limit and that anything beyond that would carry dire consequences. I agree with Peter that the declines in MS pose a real risk for investors and bloody-stubs tell me that biotechs will take it harder than companies with solid financials. The question in my mind is how long the time lag will be before the sinking MS kicks the market in the teeth. My guess is we have another week to 3 months of clear sailing before the headwinds set in. Add to this the seasonality of money flows in and out of the market and prudence should govern our investing between now and the November election. JMHO ij

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