Semi Equipment Analysis Message Board

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Technology Stocks : Semi Equipment Analysis

SOXX 342.47

+1.6%

Jan 16 4:00 PM EST

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To: The Ox who wrote (13127)	1/27/2004 12:03:47 AM
From: Return to Sender	Read Replies (1) of 95738

>My view on the group is that the PEGs are high but not as extreme as they currently appear. I think we will see some raising of earnings estimates over the course of the next couple of quarters for many of our group.< Agreed! But buying stocks now is much more speculative than it was 14 months ago. We are not even at a short term market bottom. Not fundamentally or technically. I see significant reasons to believe we are much nearer to a market top. Of course the ultimate top could be much higher. However the staunchest long term bulls here know that fundamentals for industry members improve long after stocks top out. I'm certain that we can all agree that no matter how low PEG's get from here due to improving earnings that without profit taking in industry stocks that buying now is more risky. This is a cyclical industry. The stock prices run in advance of improving fundamentals. The stock prices also fall in advance of cyclical slowdowns. So if six months from now we have lower PEG's due to improving fundamentals one still has to question how long stock prices can advance when we all know the fact that this is a cyclical industry. The best time to buy is now in the rear view mirror. I am not saying that there may not be more upside ahead. But how much upside? How long will the advance in prices last from here? What if the market begins to look further ahead to another cyclical slowdown? It will happen. So what we do from here is find stocks like you have been doing lately. Stocks that are oversold. Stocks in industries that still have the potential for further short term gains. All the while realizing that there will eventually be a much larger stock market correction than we have seen in well over a year. I believe that the same analysts that are raising estimates now are basically the same fools who wrongly lowered them so much last year. Wait a minute maybe they are not the fools! It's all a game of smoke and mirrors. They are counting on us little guys to be there buying shares right up to that last dip that turns out to be a pig killer. After all PEG's will fall as earnings rise right? And stocks are cheap! JMHO, RtS

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