"Daily Kos" The best Dem blog out there.
Final NH poll numbers
by kos
Tue Jan 27th, 2004 at 16:38:51 GMT
Some (if not all) of the polls released as of this writing. Note how similar they all look.
Boston Globe
1/25-26 1/24-25 1/23-24
Kerry 37 37 38
Dean 20 17 15
Edwards 12 12 12
Clark 14 11 8
Lieberman 7 7 7
Zogby
1/24-26 1/23-25 1/22-24
Kerry 37 31 30
Dean 24 28 23
Edwards 12 12 9
Clark 9 13 13
Lieberman 9 9 9
American Research Group
1/24-26 1/23-25 1/22-24
Kerry 35 38 38
Dean 25 20 16
Edwards 15 16 15
Clark 13 15 17
Lieberman 6 5 5
Zogby says:
"For Kerry the dam burst after 5PM on Monday. Kerry had a huge day as Undecideds broke his way by a factor of four to one over Dean. Dean recaptured a strong lead among 18-29 year olds, Northerners, singles and Progressives. He narrowed the gap among men, and college educated, however Kerry opened up huge leads among women, union voters, and voters over 65 years of age. These groups gave Kerry the big momentum heading into the primary [...]
"A final note: I know that my polling in the past two-days has shown a close race. I have no doubt that this was the case. Dean had bottomed out in the latter part of the week, was re-gaining some of his support among key voting groups, and had rehabilitated up to a point his unfavorable ratings. But in the final analysis, New Hampshire voters have decided to nominate a possible president instead of sending an angry message. New Hampshire voters are always volatile and its primaries are always fluid. I have never gotten a New Hampshire primary wrong. I stand by my close numbers of the last few days as much as I stand by these final numbers."
ARG says:
2004
The most significant result from the tracking for today is that support for Kerry, Clark, and Edwards dropped along with the continuing increase in support for Dean. Women 45 and older are returning to Howard Dean, helping to give him a 4 percentage-point gain on January 25 and a 5 percentage-point gain on January 26. Verbatims among this group point to fairness/sympathy for Dean and not beating George W. Bush driving the return to Dean. If the trend to Dean continues into tomorrow, the race will be very close as it appears that Kerry will not capture the undecided.
So according to ARG, women are returning to Dean. According to Zogby, women are flocking to Kerry. According to Zogby, momentum is suddenly with Kerry. According to ARG, momentum is suddenly with Dean.
Thank god they're finally voting in NH. I don't know how much more of this I could take. |
