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Technology Stocks : Ring the Bell - When to sell semiconductors?
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To: The Ox who wrote (17)1/27/2004 3:00:32 PM
From: chomolungma   of 34
 
"There will still be cycles, but not the huge gaps we have seen in the past," Jelinek said....

I tend to agree that the cycles will be milder in the future.

The reason I think so is because semiconductors are going into a more diverse line of products. Reliance on the PC is lessening and more and more consumer items contain semiconductors. The consumer spending cycle is not nearly as violent as the capital spending cycle.

When you sell capital goods to an industry that produces components for capital goods you are as cyclical as you can get. The industry (semiequip) will still be selling capital goods, but to an industry with a more diverse end product mixture of capital goods and consumer goods.
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