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Strategies & Market Trends : Value Investing

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To: Paul Senior who wrote (18547)	1/27/2004 5:19:45 PM
From: Steve168	Read Replies (1) of 78533

Paul and All, no value stocks is not necessarily a bad sign, this is the typical market cycle. We are at the overvalued phase and value investors should take some chips off the table. Most value textbooks say "don't time the market". I have to say that "time the market in very short term (daytrading)" is almost a sure way to lose money, but longer terms (couple years) one has to time the market. Warren Buffett is a long-term market timer, otherwise why sometimes he put all money to stocks and other times sitting on a lot of cash? He is sitting on over $30B cash now (rough number). My model turned bearish Thursday 1/22/04, and I am putting money where my month is - shorted big position in QQQ at around 38.25, and smaller positions in individual stocks that I think are significantly overvalued. I am hoping to pull off a "no drawdown" month if the market correct, or at least a much lower correction than the market. Time will tell. Good Luck to all!

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