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Technology Stocks : Qualcomm Moderated Thread - please read rules before posting
QCOM 174.690.0%Dec 24 12:59 PM EST

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To: slacker711 who wrote (38989)1/28/2004 1:12:32 PM
From: Jim Mullens  Read Replies (1) of 197028
 
Slacker, Re VOD on EDGE and your GSM1x comments- “I have never seen the 1xrtt/GSM chipsets as being a huge seller. The number of trans-atlantic roamers is just too small to justify the premium that the handsets command. I know that IJ has said that it would be a "small premium"....but that could still be a 10-15% premium to current CDMA handsets, which are already more expensive than GSM handsets. I can see VOD eating the premium for the global roaming customers, but not in the mass market where the real volumes lie.”

Thanks for listening to the VOD info and sharing the non- vision on EDGE which has caused some concern.

Re: your view that GSM1x not being a “huge seller” for trans-Atlantic roamers is reasonable. That market apparently is not significant; although the ability for VOD to utilize the VZN network for roaming does put bucks back in VOD’s pocket and not in the hands of the U.S. GSM carriers.

Would you agree that the world-wide roaming feature is not the primary selling point for GSM1x (although it does stifle one of the major GSMA complaints about CDMA) ?

The main purpose of GSM1x, IMO, is-

1. to provide carriers with both GSM and CDMA networks the ability to offer higher speed CDMA data services to their GSM subs while still preserving their legacy GSM investment and also provide for the gradual transition of GSM subs via the handset replacement route over to the more efficient CDMA network.

2. to provide added capacity to existing capacity strained GSM networks (Unicom and others) with the overlay of GSM1x infrastructure.

3. to provide an alternative and more economical path to 3G services for rural GSM customers than that afforded by WCDMA.

I also recall Dr. IMJ being quoted as stating a 10 -15% premium over current CDMA handsets. I also recall the Q stating that in time GSM1x handsets will segment all/ most pricing tiers.

I also doubt that GSM1x will ever be a “huge” seller, but given Unicom’s apparent need, the above advantages, and the huge GSM sub base ( soon to be 1Billion subs) GSM1x could enjoy respectable sales. Just 5% of the GSM replacement market would yield 15+ Million units/ year.

The World

1. 1B
2. 333M at 33% replacement rate / year
3. 15.5M at 5% of the replacement sales.

Unicom only

1. 70M
2. 23M at 33% replacement rate / year
3. 5.8M at 25% of the replacement sales.

A possibility?
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