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Kerry Wins New Hampshire As Dean's Rebound Falls Short
Kerry won New Hampshire by staging an impressive come-from-behind campaign. A year ago he was the heavy favorite to win this state, but he saw Dean ride his opposition to the Iraq war and a tireless campaign here to a 30-point lead in the polls by December.
But Kerry's big and unexpected Iowa victory radically changed the New Hampshire landscape and gave him an enormous boost heading into the final week of campaigning here, while Dean began to lose altitude. Exit polls conducted by the National Election Pool showed that he swamped Dean nearly 5 to 2 among those voters who said they made up their minds in the last week. Kerry also won among those who made their decisions in the final three days, but by a significantly smaller margin, a measure of the fact that Dean managed to regain some of his balance.
Kerry and Dean far outdistanced the other major candidates, and the final days of their battle here suggested that the Democratic race will take a negative turn as the candidates head south and west. Both candidates were warming to a tough debate over Iraq, foreign policy, experience, electability and temperament.
The other candidates have much to prove. Edwards, who has called South Carolina a must-win state, will compete with Clark to become the southern candidate. Lieberman, who vowed to continue the race, will look for any opportunity to kick-start his campaign.
Edwards counted on his surprise second-place finish in Iowa to give him a strong showing in New Hampshire and set him up for the primary in South Carolina, the first southern state in the nomination calendar.
Clark, a novice candidate, ran into turbulence in the week since Iowa and struggled in the final days, but he has already invested heavily in the Feb. 3 states. Lieberman struggled throughout the campaign here, unable to translate his centrist views and his 2000 vice presidential nomination into tangible support.
The New Hampshire results signaled a clear split in the appeals of Dean and Kerry. Among the 29 percent of the electorate who said having a candidate who stands up for what he believes was most important to them, Dean defeated Kerry by more than 2 to 1. But among the roughly one-third of the electorate who said experience or beating Bush was most important to them, Kerry overwhelmed Dean by about 6 to 1.
That split has animated the Democratic race for months, triggered by activists' anger toward Bush over the Iraq war and many other policies, with Dean's candidacy fueled by the desire for someone to challenge Bush more vigorously, and Kerry's candidacy aided in the past six weeks by questions about Dean's electability.
Dean was narrowly favored by those New Hampshire voters who said the Iraq war was their most important issue, but while more than nearly two in three voters said they disapproved of Bush's decision to go to war, Iraq was the top issue of just one in five voters. Many more said health care and the economy were the most important issues, and Kerry demolished Dean easily among those voters.
Almost half of the electorate described themselves as "angry" at Bush -- a constituency once considered Dean's core -- but Kerry narrowly led Dean among those voters and easily outdistanced Dean among those with less-intense feelings toward Bush.
Kerry and Dean have split on the issue of taxes, and their argument divided the electorate here Tuesday. Dean, who favors repealing all of Bush's tax cuts, won easily among those who agree with that position. But Kerry, who calls for rolling back only those tax cuts aimed at the wealthiest Americans, won among those who agree with his view, and they accounted for nearly half of all voters Tuesday.
Kerry demonstrated across-the-board support, winning among both men and women, among all ages except the very youngest, and among the richest and poorest and every income group in between. He easily won among voters with a college degree and even more handily among those with a high school education. Voters with postgraduate degrees favored Dean, and they accounted for a quarter of Tuesday's Democratic electorate -- a far higher percentage than the candidates will encounter in most upcoming states.
Independent voters did not play a decisive role in Tuesday's results. Kerry won registered Democrats by about 11 percentage points and those who are registered here as "undeclared" by about 13 points. Among ideological groups, Dean did best only among voters who described themselves as "very liberal," while Kerry carried moderates, liberals and conservatives.
The Democratic electorate Tuesday in New Hampshire was both angry and pessimistic. About 70 percent of voters here gave the economy negative marks, and almost nine in 10 said they were either worried or very worried about the direction of the economy. Kerry did well with both those who were optimistic and those who were pessimistic about the economy, while Dean did far better with the pessimists.
Polling director Richard Morin and assistant polling director Claudia Deane in Washington contributed to this report. |
