THE NOTE - NEWS SUMMARY
Keeping in mind the absolute necessity of remembering the distinction between "what is" and "what ought to be," The Note brings you our exclusive ABC News survey of all 500 members of the Gang of 500, regarding how they collectively feel about John Kerry's possibly getting the Democratic Party's presidential nomination and everything else that is going on now in politics.
Things can still change, and The Note wants to let the voters decide.
Can Dean or Edwards or Clark come back? Sure.
But the Gang thrives on leaping to conclusions and there is no more important conclusion to reach — even prematurely — than who the "inevitable" nominee will be.
We actually only spoke to 497 of the members.
3 members were stuck on a Boston-to-Gotham train yesterday and couldn't be reached by press time after their Acela hit a car.
So the margin of error for the survey overall is +/- 2%, and for the Democratic sub-sample it is +/- 4%.
Here is a summary of the major findings , with all statements receiving support from over 98% of respondents:
For the Democratic subsample:
1. Thank goodness Howard Dean won't be our nominee — he is a dead man walking. This is the loudest Democratic sigh of relief any of us have heard since Anthony Weiner got a phone call telling him that the test came back negative.
2. Even WE are shocked and surprised that Dean would pick a former corporate lobbyist to run his campaign — we knew Dean appeared on a satiric HBO series about corporate politics; we didn't know he wanted to turn his real-life campaign into one. (Note to Carville and Begala: yes, yes, you two predicted the Roy Neel thing down to the letter.)
3. Only John Edwards can now beat Kerry, but he won't and he'll probably be on the ticket.
4. What, exactly, do we do, when America and Democratic voters get a horrible, horrible case of buyers' remorse in a month or two?
5. The president's National Guard service in Alabama as a 2004 campaign issue if Kerry is the nominee? Mr. President, we have three words for you about that, and they aren't "not a problem."
6. You can tell which one of us on any given day is most inclined to suck up to John Kerry by the use of the Kerryesque "literally" when one literally means "figuratively." (Today's winner: Ron Wyden in the New York Times about Kerry: "People literally had put his candidacy in the grave … ")
7. What about all that time we wasted cooperating on Trippi profiles with Lisa DePaulo and that woman from CNN with the handheld camera?
From the full bipartisan Gang:
1. If your campaign is beset by money problems, management problems, and personnel problems, the best solution is probably not to seek advice from Al Gore.
2. Kerry-Edwards is actually an intriguing ticket that could, under the right circumstances, put Ohio in play.
3. Some people mistakenly focus on Dean being hurt by the gaffes, the Scream, and the war; we know it was the attacks on taxes.
4. How amazing that the other candidates failed to turn their fire on John Kerry. How amazing that there was not one negative ad in the New Hampshire primary. How amazing that no one is apparently talking about running negative ads against Kerry now (less amazing when you remember that Clark and Edwards both claim to be Mr. Positive and Dean has, we now know, no money and high negatives).
5. Boy, that Leibovich profile of Teresa Heinz from last year and the long Globe profile series on Kerry really did serve to raise the bar and innoculate them — since our mindset dovetails quiet nicely with the campaign's "that's an old story" mantra.
6. We have no clue what happens in the general election to those kids who were inspired by Dr. Dean to enter politics.
7. Lieberman will be out by Friday or Wednesday.
8. Who knew that Joe Allbaugh gave pointers to Bob Rogan in how to manage a nomination battle spending plan?
9. Sure, Iraq, the economy, health care are all going to be big issues in the general election Bush-Kerry contest, but for us, the Stuart Stevens-Bob Shrum re-match is really what will matter.
10. If you saw Diane Sawyer's incredible "World News Tonight" show closer last night (and on GMA again this morning) — about how the network tape showing Dean's "I Have a Scream" speech was totally misleading because of Dean's use of a directional mike — you realize how easily a presidential campaign can be done in by the quirks of injustice.
11. We liked Tom Brokaw's use of the passive voice on Today today, suggesting that John Kerry might get an early question tonight about his Dartmouth remark about the Democrats and the South. (BROKAW: "Well, I think one of the first questions John Kerry is going to have to answer when he gets to this state is that remark that me made at Dartmouth about 'the Democratic Party has made a mistake in spending too much time in the South.'")
All seven candidates attend MSNBC's debate in Greenville, S.C. at 7:00 pm tonight.
Brokaw will moderate the 90-minute debate, where we expect an extensive focus on the Palmetto State's economic, employment, and racial issues. The festering intra-candidate discussion of whether "The South" is really different from the rest of the country will likely rear its head here too.
Brokaw is the sole questioner and has absolute control over the direction of the debate. There will be no opening statements, closing statements, or mandatory candidate to candidate questioning.
The debate is being produced by MSNBC and will be telecast live by MSNBC and a number of NBC affiliates in South Carolina. The debate will have four commercial breaks. MSNBC will be sole provider of all video and audio of the debate itself and will make feeds available to non-NBC radio and television news organizations for news use only. |
