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Strategies & Market Trends : The Epic American Credit and Bond Bubble Laboratory
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To: Chispas who wrote (6422)1/29/2004 11:05:31 AM
From: ild   of 110194
 
Date: Thu Jan 29 2004 10:13
trotsky (stock market) ID#377387:
Copyright © 2002 trotsky/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
numerous warning signs are now converging - extremely low put/call ratios ( volume as well as open interest ) over several weeks in a row, a record high net long position in the spoos by small traders, a record low in mutual fund cash-to-asset ratios, extremely low Rydex ratios ( bull and sector assets exceeding bear assets by nearly 300% ) , combined with an almost universal belief that the 'market can't go down in an election year' conspire to produce a very vulnerable market. also, the COMP/Dow ratio looks to be deteriorating.
note, i haven't even yet mentioned the fact that it's one of the most overvalued markets of all time.
however, i think that after an initial 8-10% correction, they'll try to take it up again for a double top, or a secondary high. the reason: there are still large short positions in ETFs, as well as a large short position in the spoos on the part of the big speculators - i suspect this initial break will be used to cover such positions and partly reverse them reflecting the overwhelming bullish consensus ( note that polls such as II, AAII, market vane, show an almost unprecedented bullish unanimity ) .
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