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Strategies & Market Trends : Z PORTFOLIO

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To: Carl Worth who wrote (11452)1/30/2004 12:37:12 AM
From: Carl Worth   of 11568
 
i didn't get a fill on DRL today, so i have no buy price to report <g>

here's another stock i like, and would add to the portfolio if i get a fill (i bought this stock at 21.02 earlier today, but as i noted before, i don't always have time to post during the market day, so to be fair i won't add it to my part of the portfolio unless it trades there again, or unless i make a post in real time to add it at whatever price it is at then):

CELL - the company is the exclusive distributor of nokia cell phones in the US, and has sales offices in many other countries worldwide...this contract was recently renewed and is now in force through the end of 2005...in addition to nokia, they distribute almost every other major brand of wireless product, and they provide logistics services to manufacturers and network operators

the estimate for the current quarter is .34 vs .17 last year and .27 last quarter (last quarter they beat the estimate by .09)...the estimate for 2003 is .85 and for 2004 it is 1.33, a growth rate of over 50% on estimated revenue growth of over 25%

the balance sheet is quite nice, with over 6 bucks in tangible book, 61M in cash, and only 5.7M in long term debt

the main concern would be that profit margins are low, but the low price/sales ratio seems to take this into account, and as such, they have a reasonable p/e of under 17x next year's estimate...with 50% growth estimated for next year, a 25 multiple for the company doesn't seem overly rich, especially given their balance sheet, and this would equate to a stock price of over 30 bucks

they report their earnings after hours next thursday, so there is a little bit of risk buying ahead of that, but companies that have beat their number and offered an encouraging outlook have done well this earnings season, and i would expect that from CELL

carl
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