Poll: Edwards Widens Lead on Kerry in South Carolina
Sat January 31, 2004 07:24 AM ET
By John Whitesides, Political Correspondent
WASHINGTON (Reuters) - John Kerry kept his big leads in Missouri and Arizona and closed the gap on Wesley Clark in Oklahoma three days before a crucial round of seven Democratic presidential contests, according to a Reuters/MSNBC/Zogby poll released on Saturday.
John Edwards, needing a win in South Carolina to keep his campaign alive, widened his lead over Kerry in the state to 4 points in the latest three-day tracking poll.
Kerry, the new Democratic front-runner after back-to-back wins in the first two contests, holds a 33-point lead in Missouri and a 16-point lead in Arizona, where Clark shaved 5 points off his advantage in one day.
In Oklahoma, Kerry gained 5 points on Clark to trail 25 percent to 22 percent.
"Kerry is running well, but this is not over yet if Clark and Edwards can at least stay where they are today," pollster John Zogby said, adding Kerry looked "rock solid" in Missouri and Arizona.
Kerry's rivals are looking for breakthrough wins on Tuesday that would propel them to the front of the pack alongside the senator from Massachusetts. Clark in Oklahoma and Edwards in South Carolina appear the most likely to pull off a win.
"Edwards moved up a couple of points over Kerry in South Carolina, is running respectably in Oklahoma and is within striking distance of achieving delegates in Missouri," Zogby said.
"Clark appears poised for a solid second place showing in Arizona. If Clark can couple that with a victory in Oklahoma, he will certainly make this pollster look twice."
Howard Dean, the fallen front-runner who has turned his attention to getting a win on Feb. 7 in Michigan or on Feb. 17 in Wisconsin, remained mired in third place in Arizona, Missouri and South Carolina, and fourth place in Oklahoma.
Seven states hold primaries or caucuses on Tuesday in the race to find a Democratic challenger to President Bush -- Missouri, South Carolina, Oklahoma, Arizona, Delaware, New Mexico and North Dakota -- with 269 delegates at stake to this summer's nominating convention. A total of 2,162 delegates are needed to win.
The poll of 600 likely primary voters in four states -- Missouri, Arizona, South Carolina and Oklahoma -- was taken Wednesday through Friday and has a margin of error of 4.1 percentage points. It will continue through Tuesday, the day of the primaries and caucuses.
The poll found all four states still have large pools of undecided voters, ranging from 15 percent in Arizona to 22 percent in South Carolina.
A look at each state:
Missouri - In the biggest prize on Tuesday with 74 delegates at stake, Kerry leads Edwards, the senator from North Carolina, 46 percent to 13 percent. Dean was at 8 percent, Clark and Connecticut Sen. Joseph Lieberman at 4 percent each, civil right activist Al Sharpton 2 percent and Rep. Dennis Kucinich of Ohio 1 percent.
South Carolina - Edwards, who was born in the state and admits he must win there to continue his campaign, holds a 4 percentage point lead over Kerry at 26 percent to 22 percent. Dean, the former Vermont governor, in third place at 9 percent, followed by Clark at 8 percent, Sharpton at 6 percent and Lieberman at 4 percent.
Arizona - Kerry leads Clark 36 percent to 20 percent, with Dean at 12 percent, Lieberman 7 percent, Edwards 6 percent and Kucinich 3 percent.
Oklahoma - Clark leads Kerry 25 percent to 22 percent, with Edwards at 16 percent, Dean at 8 percent and Lieberman at 6 percent.
reuters.com |
