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Strategies & Market Trends : The Epic American Credit and Bond Bubble Laboratory

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To: mishedlo who wrote (6596)	1/31/2004 10:47:28 AM
From: yard_man	Read Replies (2) of 110194

I love the Lake Louise / Banff area. It's awesome. He is optimistic and so am I, but I think we got some tough times ahead. Re Hoisington -- I-love-bonds, I-love-bonds, I-love-bonds <VBG> I think he is a little one-sided, but what is good there is the output gap he is reporting on and the other measure that he mentions as well as his take on jobs. Arguing from government statistics that there has been a "de-facto tightening" is hokum, IMO. I can't buy that -- although I do believe there are reasont to think that real returns on long bond are not going to be awful going forward. I think bonds recognize the implication of that output gap and that it isn't getting any better -- again, bonds are and will be further discounting the fact that capital goods and real estate are going to be cheaper in the future.

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