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Technology Stocks : Silicon Valley Group

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To: A.J. Mullen who wrote (801)	8/14/1997 9:58:00 PM
From: LLCF	of 2946

EXACTLY! Oopps by adding 60 and 20 I was assuming those had by definition equal chances of of occurance....a 50-50 example of finding E(value)....which would of course be $40. Thanks for the correction! So what do we think? Any ideas on the "success value" and "fail value" of SVGI? I'm sure some would argue that the "success value" could be higher...and that there are "in bettween" outcomes as well, but I find the exercise a useful tool in situations like this when a small number of outcomes can be identified. Recently this analysis was very useful in estimating value of "Duramed" stock and options with an upcomming FDA decision...an obvious "yes/no" problem. DAK

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