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Strategies & Market Trends : The Epic American Credit and Bond Bubble Laboratory
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To: russwinter who wrote (6615)1/31/2004 6:18:10 PM
From: yard_man  Read Replies (1) of 110194
 
well, I read it -- besides the comment I made -- I'd say this about the GDP number: BS!! so much one-off stuff in there (see fiscal stimulus, military spending) and then there is the way the government calculates

But from a 50k foot level -- the whole premise is based on recovery -- are you buying into that??

I'd be interested in hearing what capacity you no longer believe is relevant to the calculation and is obsolete --

One calculation, I bet they have correct is for autos. You can't convince me that real capacity utilization there is is greater. Also, re Aluminum -- there is clearly a large excess of capacity that is not obsolete, but excess.

Likewise in the industries underlying building -- I don't believe we are bumping supply constraints at all -- but if we were, do you really think building and construction at these levels are sustainable? So what would you expect going forward?

Housing and autos are a pretty big part or the economy ...

Now as far as office equipment goes -- PCs. semis and comm equipment. Do you think we are hitting supply constraints there?? here is where you might have a legit pt concerning obsolescence, but I wonder if it really matters -- contraction is contraction -- prices of that sort of equipment is going down, not up.
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