JUST IN: BUSH'S APPROVAL RATING DROPS TO ALL TIME LOW!!!!!
msnbc.msn.com
WEB EXCLUSIVE
By Brian Braiker
Updated: 1:58 p.m. ET Jan. 31, 2004
Jan. 31 - Massachusetts Sen. John Kerry, fresh from his victory in the New Hampshire primary last Tuesday, holds a substantial lead over Democratic rivals in the race for the White House, according to the latest NEWSWEEK poll. Meanwhile, President George W. Bush’s approval ratings have slipped to historic lows, the poll shows.
Kerry has widened his lead versus his closest competitors to a convincing 30 points-45 percent of Democrats polled support Kerry, compared to former Vermont governor Howard Dean’s 14 percent and North Carolina Sen. John Edwards’ 11 percent. Kerry now strikes two-thirds of Democratic voters (65 percent) as the contender most likely to beat Bush in November and an overwhelming 82 percent of Democrats view Kerry favorably,
"I love New Hampshire," a jubilant Kerry shouted in his victory speech. "I have a message for the influence peddlers, for the polluters, the HMOs, the drug companies, big oil and all the special interests who now call the White House home: We’re coming. You’re going. And don’t let the door hit you on the way out."
On Tuesday, the primary race moves to South Carolina and Oklahoma, Southern states where Dean and Edwards receive 17 percent of Democrat voters’ support behind Kerry’s 35 percent, according to the NEWSWEEK poll. Kerry has a 38-point lead in non-Southern states.
In a hypothetical vote, Kerry and Bush are locked in a dead heat, with Kerry pulling 48 percent or registered voters vs. Bush’s 46 percent. Those numbers are increasingly important to Kerry: 43 percent of Democrats say electability is their most important issue in choosing a candidate. Forty-six percent say they care more about issue compatibility (last week 53 percent chose issue compatibility while only 39 percent considered electability the most important factor).
While Kerry is enjoying his bounce in the polls, Bush’s approval rating is at an all-time low in the NEWSWEEK poll, slipping to 49 percent (with 43 percent approving). Almost half (49 percent) do not want to see the president reelected in the fall (compared to 45 percent who do), which represents a slight improvement in his favor over last week, when 52 percent didn’t want to see him re-elected (44 percent did).
For the first time in the NEWSWEEK poll, a majority (54 percent) believes the Bush administration misinterpreted intelligence about Iraq. But a majority (51 versus 41 percent) also believes Bush did not willfully lie to the public. And despite claims by a former weapons inspector that Iraq had no illegal cache of weapons, half (49 percent) of those polled still believe Saddam Hussein’s regime played a direct roll in the September 11 terror attacks and a majority (55 percent, down from an even larger majority of 71 percent last summer) still believe Iraq had banned weapons prior to the war. More than half (55 percent) feel the U.S. did the right thing in going to war with Iraq, down from 62 percent in December.
Edwards is also polling strongly against the president in a hypothetical election, winning 44 percent of the vote vs. Bush’s 49 percent. The other Democratic candidates lag by double-digit percentage points: Connecticut Sen. Joe Lieberman, who has not fared well at the primaries thus far, is next, with 41 percent of the vote to Bush’s 52; Dean gets 40 percent of the vote compared to Bush’s 52 percent; and retired Gen. Wesley Clark gets 41 percent versus Bush’s 53.
The gains made by Democrats in recent weeks against Bush have led voters to conclude that a Bush re-election is less a certainty than ever. Only about one-third (35 percent) of all voters believe it is "very likely" Bush will regain the White House this fall; representing a drop from earlier polls this same month of 43 percent. Still, a full 79 percent of all registered voters believe it is either "somewhat" or "very" likely Bush will defeat his Democratic competitor in November.
For the NEWSWEEK poll, Princeton Survey Research Associates interviewed 1,259 adults aged 18 and older Jan. 29 and Jan. 30 by telephone. The margin of error is plus or minus 3 percentage points. |
