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Gold/Mining/Energy : Gold & Gold Stock Analysis

GLD 375.93

-1.8%

Nov 14 4:00 PM EST

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To: Little Joe who wrote (1277)	2/1/2004 7:39:12 AM
From: Andrew	Read Replies (2) of 29622

Hi LJ, thanks for the charts and commentary. Now my 2 cents worth. With Gold My original projections in the first post of this Thread have held up amazingly well, I have myself been a bit surprised by the accuracy of my calls. I will concede that I was off by a bit on #4, either by time or price that remains to be seen. I still think that 385 - 390 over the next few days or week is possible but the 395 we saw the other day was close enough. In retrospect I see that 390 - 395 was major resistance and as I noted a while back 400 is a meaningless round number and mainly a psychological barrier. Irregardless IMO we have seen most of the correction in the Gold shares. I am starting to see some consolidation in some charts and similar chart patterns all around. What I see on most of the charts is a falling wedge pattern. For the most part falling wedges resolve to the upside. A failure of the falling trendlines on these charts would be real bad IMO and could signal that its time to forget the Gold shares for a while. This is the risk here. We must be watchful of a breakdown of these wedges. Gold stocks lead the Gold price. I have been posting this forever. The Gold shares lead the Metal price higher and topped out a month earlier on DEC 2nd signaling that Gold would retreat. By the time the Gold price starts to move again the Gold shares will have already broken out to the upside out of the falling wedges. I will post several charts that all exhibit this pattern and it is easy to see that these will resolve shortly since the top lines and the bottom lines are rapidly converging. XAU Daily. Draw the upper and lower trendlines, looks like a falling wedge to me. MACD nearing it lowest level below zero line since mid March. I like it when two falling trendlines are converging and MACD is in oversold territory and starting to turn up. This is my money maker in every time frame from intraday to weekly. XAU has also made a 38.2 FIB retrace. BTW I use the reverse to sell or sell short, ie. breakdowns of rising wedges with overbought MACD crossing down. That is what got me out on DEC 2nd. Simple and effective. chart.bigcharts.com HUI ditto, not quite a 38.2 retrace but this can be attributed to the strength of the SA Golds and silver stocks recently in this index. chart.bigcharts.com PDG ditto chart.bigcharts.com GG ditto. Screw the ANALyst downgrades, this is the most profitable Gold miner in the World. UBS has upgraded it <G> chart.bigcharts.com NEM chart.bigcharts.com BGO chart.bigcharts.com KGC chart.bigcharts.com GLG chart.bigcharts.com NSU the only smaller one I will mention. chart.bigcharts.com Subject 54201 I pretty much nailed the first 4. #5 hmmm. well let me tell you that IMO any close above 420 for Gold in the next few weeks and a rapid move to above 450 will be the result. In the meantime I wont lose sleep over where Gold is going in the short term, I am watching the charts of the producers. They will tell me. This correction had a lot to do with the herd coming in and the herd running for the small exit all at once. They will be back for another round. Reactions based on AG and the FED's. What a bunch of crap. We have one percent interest rates. Does anyone else see the inflation? The FED is always behind the curve and we will see an ugly period of Stagfaltion in the next decade or longer. Yes, get yourself a job at walmart and go buy yourself that $500,000 house. Gold has one way to go IMO short ugly corrections not withstanding.

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