Biogen Message Board - Msg: 19758002

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Biotech / Medical : Biogen

BIIB 187.65

+0.9%

Jan 9 9:30 AM EST

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To: Harold Engstrom who started this subject	2/1/2004 9:38:15 PM
From: mopgcw	Read Replies (1) of 1686

From GS: Biogen Idec, Inc. EPS (FY Dec) 2003E $1.00, 2004E $1.49 Outperform/Neutral (BIIB) $43.40 Biogen IDEC and Elan announced positive Phase III results on Antegren as maintenance therapy in Crohn's disease. The announcement was a slight surprise because previous data from the induction phase of the same study was mixed. We expect management to decide on filing an FDA application by mid-2004. The sales potential of Antegren in CD approximates $300MM. However, it is too early to raise estimates because it is not clear whether the data will be sufficient to support an FDA application. Our investment thesis is based on the Phase III data of Antegren in multiple sclerosis ($1B potential) and Rituxan in rheumatoid arthritis ($1B potential). Full data from both studies are expected by early 2005. Biogen IDEC shares may be volatile in H1/04 depending on the interim data on Antegren in MS, which will probably be negative. At 29X our 2004 EPS of $1.49 and PEG of 1.5, the shares are below the group average of 35X and PEG of 1.6. We maintain our Outperform rating, estimates and Neutral coverage view.

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