Kerry Strong In All 7 Races On Tuesday
Polls Show Senator Ahead or Competitive
By Dan Balz
Washington Post Staff Writer
Sunday, February 1, 2004; Page A01
COLUMBIA, S.C., Jan. 31 -- Riding the momentum from his recent victories in Iowa and New Hampshire, Sen. John F. Kerry (D-Mass.) is leading or competitive in all seven states with primaries or caucuses on Tuesday, and his opponents have adopted a divide-to-survive strategy to deny him a sweep.
Tuesday's contests stretch from the South across the Midwest and Great Plains to the Rocky Mountains, and interviews with politicians in those regions, plus the latest polls, underscore the degree to which Kerry is poised to take a big step in his march toward the Democratic presidential nomination.
Kerry spent little time or money in most of the seven states before his win in New Hampshire last Tuesday, but his early victories have transformed the races everywhere. New Mexico Gov. Bill Richardson (D), who has been traveling across his state to attend rallies with many of the candidates, said Saturday that Kerry's momentum would be hard to overcome. "It's an incredible surge," he said.
Kerry is the only candidate competing actively in all states, with his rivals cherry-picking among the seven in hopes of slowing Kerry's candidacy, forcing the nomination battle into the next several rounds of contests and keeping their hopes alive. "What every campaign is looking for is to stretch out the calendar," said Matt Bennett, communications director for retired Army Gen. Wesley K. Clark.
Kerry's toughest race Tuesday appears to be here in South Carolina, the first southern state to vote in the primaries. Sen. John Edwards (N.C.) has called it a must-win for his candidacy, and two weekend polls give Edwards a double-digit lead over Kerry. A third shows the race much closer.
In Oklahoma, the site of another major battle, Clark is counting on his military experience and Arkansas roots to propel him to victory. He holds a fragile lead over a rising Kerry, who will make his first appearance in the state this weekend. There is also a vigorous fight in Arizona, with Kerry leading Clark there. In all the states, many Democrats are still undecided.
Tuesday provides a critical test for all the Democrats, as they compete for the first time in the nomination battle for the votes of African Americans and Latinos, and in states with more moderate electorates than they encountered in either Iowa or New Hampshire.
The Massachusetts senator has embarked on a six-day, seven-state campaign swing and has invested heavily in television ads in all the states, hoping to win the majority of the contests and the bulk of the 269 delegates at stake.
His major rivals, meanwhile, will face increased pressure from party officials and even some of their most prominent supporters to reexamine their candidacies if they fail to win anywhere Tuesday.
"We'll have had all regions of the country voting, and after that candidates will have to make their assessment," said Democratic National Committee Chairman Terence R. McAuliffe. "Can they continue to raise money? Can they continue to get their message out? That's an assessment candidates are going to have to make based on what the voters have said."
Former Vermont governor Howard Dean, who was knocked off his front-runner's perch by Kerry after finishing third in Iowa and second in New Hampshire, faces a bleak Tuesday.
Dean is not advertising in any of the seven states, and his advisers have said he hopes to amass his share of delegates on the cheap. But in many states this weekend, Dean was in danger of not meeting the 15 percent threshold needed to qualify for delegates.
Dean has already begun preparing for losses in all seven states on Tuesday by telling supporters he will keep going regardless of what happens. Roy Neel, Dean's new chief executive officer, laid out the campaign's new strategy in an e-mail message to supporters Friday night, saying Dean will concentrate on Michigan and Washington on Feb. 7, Maine on Feb. 8 and make Wisconsin's Feb. 17 primary a critical battleground.
But even some of his most important supporters question that strategy. Andrew Stern, president of the Service Employees International Union, the first major union to give Dean an endorsement, said Dean needs a strategy for winning the nomination and that the results Tuesday will have a major impact on his chances. |
