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Technology Stocks : Qualcomm Moderated Thread - please read rules before posting

QCOM 174.69

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Dec 24 12:59 PM EST

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To: Jim Mullens who wrote (39059)	2/2/2004 12:54:31 AM
From: slacker711	Read Replies (1) of 197031

How about Brian Modoff’s research report finding on AWE’s deployment cost?- “what do you get for $1.5B”, etc). Granted, its somewhat dated and with the telecom depression costs have come down, but his numbers are still huge. Do you have any documentation to refute his numbers? Let's throw around some numbers... AWE has already built out its GSM-MAP infrastructure which will remain the same for W-CDMA. The GSM network is at 1900MHz which is also where the W-CDMA will be placed....so they have already obtained most of the base stations sites that will be needed. Antennas, power, and bandwidth should all be in place for these sites. So, most of the cost of the upgrade is going to be in the price of the base stations themselves. Note that I am assuming that an entirely new base station is needed and that you cant get away with a new transceiver (as some of the newer GSM base stations seem to imply). Let's estimate about 20,000 base stations for a nationwide network (about what PCS currently has). I have read in multiple locations that the price of a W-CDMA base stations has actually dropped below the price of a GSM base station. I dont have access to GSM or W-CDMA base station prices (anybody have access to that info?)....but I have read other people estimate that the price is now well below $100,000. I think you can pretty much see where this is going....if I use a range of $50,000 to $100,000 for the price of the base stations, you end up with an upgrade cost of $1 to $2 billion. There are obviously some other ancillary costs including the cost to put in new base stations. Overall though the AWE estimate doesnt look to far out of line. The key is that AWE already has the 1900MHz sites and the fact that W-CDMA base station prices have fallen so substantially over the years. Slacker

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