Good morning Pezz, Report – Australia Front:
I have ordered my AUD troops to abandon their BHP uk.finance.yahoo.com and Rio Tinto uk.finance.yahoo.com positions, fall back to AUD cash position, and yes, beat a retreat now so as to not suffer a rout later.
I sold my BHP position for AUD 11.33/shr, claiming a loot of AUD 2.24/shr in capital gains and AUD 0.31/shr in dividends, amounting to 28% of goodies Message 18504197 <<January 28th, 2003>>, and if translated back to my base currency HKD/USD, tack on another 32% of mysterious currency gains. Lessons? Anticipate the hot sectors, go with the strong currencies, and do not belittle dividends.
I sold my Rio Tinto position for AUD 35.55, claiming a loot of AUD 3.38/shr in capital gains and AUD 1.25/shr in dividends, amounting to 14% of goodies Message 18504197 <<January 28th, 2003>>, and … 32% of above mentioned and still mysterious currency gains. Lessons? Do not try to pick winners, buy the sector, and never mind the balance sheets and P/Ls.
I am terribly afraid. I know logically that the USD should continue to go down, and I feel intuitively that minerals should continue to inflate, but a voice within says, ‘Jay, conviction kills, and absolute conviction slaughters totally’. I am also expecting China soft-landing, and Asian financial market turmoil, plus a possible US market tanking. The odds are not favorable, and so it is best to run, while the running is still good.
The issue, as always, is, ‘which direction?’
Chugs, Jay |
