GSM1x cost data.
A further search of the Qualcomm site revealed the following white paper initially published in Feb 2003, with later updated material. Additional white papers are also provided at this site.
gsm1x.com
Click on “White Papers” on upper left for listing of such. You will need to complete a simple request form in order to download PDF file.
In short, the Q estimates the GSM1x overlay cost at $237M for a Singapore GSM carrier (hypothetical) –
...........at $248K per cell site for CDMA20001x and EV-DO.
...........at $201 per sub for 1x and EV-DO
...........at $57.8 per POP – my estimate for 4.1M Singpapore residents (approx 80% penetration)
Translating this to AWE’s network per Slacker estimate of 20,000 sites (base stations)-
...........$248K X 20K sites = $5B
...........$201/ sub X 23.3M subs (with affiliates) = $4.7B
Granted, the Singapore market may be a unique case with a high sub penetration rate, a relatively small area, and perhaps little rural area requiring base stations. However, it does give us some “hard” numbers to look at and gives some credence to Brian Modoff’s analysis that at $1.5B, AWE’s amount of coverage is questionable.
Verizon “ expects to invest $1 billion over the next two years to deploy its EV-DO technology nationally (in major markets). “ I believe I read 75 markets, anyone seen the exact number? Modoff’s report suggest that AWE’s cost to be $3.3B for its top 75 markets.
Below is my summary of Qualcomm’s white paper. Most info is taken verbatim. Any corrections, clarifications, comments would be appreciated-
jim
GSM 1X Business Case For GSM Operators
GSM1x Rollout Strategy for Singapore
..Assumptions-
....1...GSM ix overlay in the 3G IMT2000 band at 2100MHz by a fictional incumbent GSM operator with an existing GSM/GPRS underlay network at 1800MHz.
....2..GSM1x service launch by 4Q 2003 and includes the optional deployment of 1xEV-DO.
....3. Since Singapore is a small market from a coverage perspective, for this business case, the fictional GSM carrier is assumed to deploy island-wide coverage from the outset of the project..
....4. EV-DO is initially deployed only in the key urban areas where subscribers are most likely to use the service.
BTS (Base Transceiver Station) Resource Requirements--
....1...It is estimated that 953 single carrier, three-sector BTSs are required to provide nationwide wireless coverage (683km2) in Singapore.
....2.....Coverage analysis shows that providing island-wide coverage of GSM1x at 2100 MHz will require approximately the same number of cell sites as are required for GSM-GPRS at 1800MHz. The coverage site count, relatively high for an island the size of Singapore, is driven by the stringent in-building coverage demands...
....3....Although the GSM1x network operates at a higher frequency than the GSM-GPRS network, coverage sites required are about the same given the greater link budget of the CDMA technology. This allows the operator to reuse the existing GSM sites and deploy a one-to-one overlay, thereby saving costs as expensive site acquisition costs are averted and existing power and leased line facilities can be used.
GSM1x Marketing Strategy / metrics
....Singapore population- 4.1 Million
....Land area – 683 km2
....Wireless penetration rate 79% and expected to reach 84.5% by 2007.
.......Wireless subs 3.5 M 2003, 4.4 M 2010
CAPEX totals $237 million
....Network capital expenditures include radio access network (RAN), installation costs, core network equipment , and other deployment costs.
....1- RAN (82% Network CAPEX) includes BTS, base station controller (BSC), ancillary equipment, ...................shipping, and lease lines.
.........BTS –953 required
.........E1 lines- 5 per BTS to connect the BSC.
.........2nd CDMA20001x carrier is added in 2006 to meet increased traffic demand
.........1 CDMA20001x EV-DO carrier is needed for the entire 7 year period.
.........BSCs- only 5 are initially required, increasing to 29 by 2010.
.........BTS costs represent 88% of the total RAN equipment expenditures.
....2- Installation costs (7% of total network CAPEX) are essentially labor costs to install the RAN and core network equipment
....3-..Core network equip.(9% Network CAPEX)-consists of MSNs, servers, and packet data serving nodes .....................(PDSN
..............MSN- one initially, increasing to four (43% of total core CAPEX)
..............PDSN- one initially, increasing to twenty-one.
....4-..Other (2% of Network CAPEX) consists of project management, network planning, operations equipment, site acquisition, and system test.
....5- Summary-
..........Total CAPEX is $237M- (equipment, installation, and network optimization)
.............$153M for CDMA2000 1x ($160K per site)
.............$ 84M for 1xEV-DO ($88K per site)
.............$248M for 1x and EV-DO combined ($248K per site)
...........Cost per subscriber
..............CDMA2000 1x and EV-DO = $201/sub
..............CDMA2000 1x alone = $130/sub
....6- Additional Information is provided for network operating expenses, revenue, and investment analysis-
..........Positive operating profit (EBITDA) in first full year and EBITDA margin of 40%+ by 2006.
..........Analyzing the free cash flow chows that the GSM1x network will have a payback period of 4 years.
..........The internal rate of return (IRR) is 64% over the eight year period. |
