How about Brian Modoff’s research report finding on AWE’s deployment cost?- “what do you get for $1.5B”, etc).
I dug around and found the report myself...
base-earth.com
Without giving it too close a read, my first impression is that he committed a blunder akin to when he apparently compared class 10 GPRS with class 2 EDGE (still looking for that STN report :) ). "Our forecast is only for the radio access network (RAN) and the core network. If you scoll down to the bottom of the 2002 report, you reach the area that you've repeatedly quoted. In the figures, the stacked bar graphs show the CAPEX requirements for WCDMA broken down into two components: the RAN and the Core network (incidentally, Figs 11 and 12 have the color codings for RAN and CORE switched compared to Figs 8-9). If you take the data at face value, it appears to suggest that Modoff's "analysis" assumes a build up of WDCMA from scratch (without an operational GSM base), and is therfore anywhere from 10-80% overestimated (by eyeballing the relative capex of CN and RAN on the charts). At best, this report is an honest mistake; at worst, it's FUD. Coupled with the EDGE vs. GPRS "comparision," I'd consider Modoff's credibility somewhat questionable.
Good find though on the QCOM white paper on GSM1X. If a 1X basestation is $160,000 (for ReleaseA and no DO), and the comparable wCDMA basestation is ~$100,000, it looks like the price of GSM1X and wCDMA are in the same ballbark (for the same spectrum), and the decision will come down to what spectrum the operator has available. If they want to use 3G spectrum at 2100 MHz, then wCDMA seems like the natural choice. Unfortunately for GSM1X prospects (IMO), if a GSM operator has to use existing spectrum, then EDGE is pretty compelling at around 1/10 the cost of GSM1X (although it does not increase capacity). And then there's always downbanded wCDMA as a potential competitor...
Anyway, getting back to the original discussion, which revolved around GSM/1X dual mode handsets, I believe ... :) |
