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Strategies & Market Trends : The Millennium Crash

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To: Bonnie Bear who wrote (229)8/14/1997 11:38:00 PM
From: tekgk   of 5676
 
>> where has the smart money gone if it is going out of the market?

This is the question.

About once a decade I change markets. This is how I have made biggest gains. This time I am not sure where to go next, so I am tinkering with some shorts, puts etc. until I can figure it out. I did manage to ride a couple of small waves recently but I think that I could get fried just as easily. Once in a while I get tempted to jump in with real money because fundamentals point to a big drop, but I have not so far. I'll look at Applied Materials as a possible short to add to my short list.

I have always found what I felt were sure bets in other markets when things got confusing in the market that I was in. For example, when Gold was going wild in the late 70's I bailed before the top (650 - missed 800+ but close enough for me) and jumped into long term bonds which were paying as much as 18% with with good ratings and inflation falling. When these started to mature or were called, stock yields when over 5% (or something like that I can't remember exactly) and were rising - so off I went.

This time I am not sure where to go. Stocks could have yet another surge but could just as easily tank on a moments notice. Bonds could go up as rates drop when the market tanks but could just as easily tank if the Japanese sell first. Gold could get hit with another round of central bank selling and tank or it could go up if the FRB pumps money to solve the debt problems. Is there some market that is obvious that I am missing that is much clearer?

The greed that caused this debt problem reminds me getting drunk and watching one of your pals lurching from side to side and betting on which way he will fall. The bet ends when he leans into the corner and slowly sinks to the ground and falls asleep. I guess I'll have to follow rarebirds advice and be patient and meditate for a while until things clear up.
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