"New Republic" Campaign Journal, by Ryan Lizza.
DELEGATE SITUATION: The Democratic primary season has become unwieldy since New Hampshire. Without a single state on which to concentrate, it's more difficult to follow the race. The four main candidates are now dividing themselves among 15 states that will vote tomorrow through February 17.
Here's what the calendar looks like and the number of delegates at stake in each state:
February 3 (269)
South Carolina (45)
Missouri (74)
North Dakota (14)
Arizona (55)
New Mexico (26)
Delaware (15)
Oklahoma (40)
February 7 (204)
Michigan (128)
Washington (76)
February 8 (24)
Maine (24)
February 10 (151)
Tennessee (69)
Virginia (82)
February 14 (40)
Washington, D.C. (16)
Nevada (24)
February 17 (72)
Wisconsin (72)
February 24 (70)
Idaho (18)
Utah (23)
Hawaii (20)
Surveying this hodgepodge of contests preceding Super Tuesday on March 2, when 10 states worth 1,151 delegates will vote, John Kerry's three main rivals have come up with strategies for stopping him. None of the plans seems very promising.
I get the sense from talking to various Democratic campaign officials over the last few days that the same dynamic at work for the last year persists here at the end. That is that all the candidates believe the rest of the field is so weak that front-runnerdom could be at hand for any one of them at any moment. Dean rocketed past John Kerry last year. Wes Clark shot to the top of the polls when he entered the race. Dean collapsed overnight. The ups and downs have solidified a belief that the entire race can turn on a dime. The anti-Kerry plans may be pipe dreams after Kerry's Iowa and New Hampshire victories, but everyone has been wrong about everything in this race so far, so why shouldn't Kerry's opponents stick around and try to topple him?
John Edwards
Must-win state tomorrow: South Carolina
Then what: He flies to Memphis Tuesday night and fights for Tennessee and Virginia, which both hold primaries a week later on February 10. This means he will likely skip the February 7 Washington and Michigan caucuses as well as the February 8 Maine caucus.
What's wrong with this plan: He's almost broke. He actually raised less money than Joe Lieberman in the last quarter of 2003. He doesn't have a grassroots donor network to feed off of when times are tough as Dean and, to a lesser extent, Clark do. It's unclear whether the media will treat a South Carolina victory as a major achievement. Just look how they screwed Edwards after his come-from-nowhere second-place finish in Iowa.
Wesley Clark
Must-win state tomorrow: Oklahoma
Then what: Clark hopes for Edwards to beat Kerry in South Carolina and for Dean to further weaken Kerry in Michigan or Washington. The plan then calls for Clark to beat Kerry in Tennessee, weakening Kerry even further. Virginia will become a Kerry-Edwards fight. Thus, the winner of Tennessee will face the winner of Virginia for a climactic battle in Wisconsin on February 17. As icing, on February 24 Clark also wins the completely ignored Utah primary, and Idaho and Hawaii caucuses, propelling him to victory on March 2, Super Tuesday.
What's wrong with this plan: Clark is in a three-way tie with Edwards and Kerry in Oklahoma. Even if he ekes out a victory, it's not clear it would be noted as a significant feat by the press any way. And Kerry could still roll into Tennessee and Virginia with as many as 11 victories under his belt.
Howard Dean
Must-win state tomorrow: None. (But New Mexico would be cool.)
Then what: Once the pretenders to the anti-Kerry throne are vanquished and Kerry is crippled, perhaps by a spate of unsavory articles reminiscent of the last time Kerry was the front-runner, Dean delivers some body blows in Michigan and Washington on February 7, and Maine on February 8. The race will then become a contest between Dean and Kerry that will be settled in Wisconsin.
What's wrong with this plan: According to Roy Neel's strategy memo, Dean is hoping for two paradoxical results tomorrow. On the one hand Neel wants Edwards and Clark cleared from the race. On the other hand he wants Kerry weakened. Of course, the way for Kerry to be weakened is for Clark and Edwards to beat Kerry in Oklahoma and South Carolina, thus keeping them viable. Neel is also silent on his plan for the February 10 Tennessee and Virginia contests, which together are worth 151 delegates.
Finally, Dean spent two years and $45 million trying a version of this strategy in Iowa and New Hampshire. It didn't work. |
