I don't think that anyone here can call the market top for REITs. It is silly to put Richard on that spot. I've been scolded for years that interest rates would increase and REITs would drop. I've expected it for years. OK, maybe now is the time.
REIT index for the year - only up up up since March 2003.
finance.yahoo.com^RCI&t=1y&c=
Now, if you look at that chart, you'd think that REIT holders were brilliant. But then look at this REIT vs NYSE
finance.yahoo.com
and you think, well it didn't really matter what you owned because you were brilliant to own anything. (But then again, REIT index does not show divided reinvestment -- add 7% or so to the REIT line for dividends. So REITS did measurably better than the NYSE.)
Back to the thread... If you looked at Richards posts during 2003, he was wisely arguing caution and disbelief. And you might say he was calling the top and calling for a pullback quite a few times -- sorry Richard. But in this case, interest rates did not increase, and REITs followed/led the market. So for you to say that he's been "on the money' is a bit of a stretch. Like Bush was "on the money" in the WMD claims in Iraq, I guess.
I truly appreciate Richard posts regarding individual REITs and sectors and other wise tidbits, but I always consult my lucky 8 ball and my two headed quarter before making important decision like predicting the top of any market.
I have been lightening up on preferreds, because many are at a premium to redemption value. And the effective yields are approaching 4%, 5%, or 6%, when you factor in the possible redemptions.
I am watching for GRT-g to start trading soon. The new issues usually start at around $25+, then climb to $26 or $27 in a short time afterward.
biz.yahoo.com
GLB looks like a good deal, comparing/graphing yield vs retention rate for the universe of REITs.
grommit |
