Have you seen any meaningful discussion of the "spring offensive" supposedly coming up in Afghanistan? I'm particularly interested in seeing how we plan to handle the problem of bad guys hopping across the Pakistani border. The NWFP government is more on the Taliban's side than ours, and the Pakistani military cannot be expected to act effectively against our enemies, who are in many cases their friends.
Musharraf, of course, is on thin ice, largely because his pro-West stance is seriously at odds with the views of so many of his people. It seems to me that if he lets US forces operate in Pakistan, or if US forces cross the border without his approval, that could easily spur a coup, especially if Pakistanis are killed. The coup would be likely to have an Islamist slant, which comes close to being a worst-case scenario for us. Our intel on the locations or even the number of the nukes is dubious at best. Regime change would be a pretty complex situation, given the nuclear capability, and the problems of occupation would be monumental, far worse than those of Iraq.
The ascension of an Islamist government in Pakistan would also, of course, create an enormously dangerous situation with respect to India.
Looks like a very tricky balancing act. One misdirected bomb on a Pakistani village, or even the public perception of such an event - which would not be terribly difficult to fabricate - could create a truly enormous mess. |
