WRT to Japan, outsourcing, and things that happen and don't. This whole discussion is more about trends. The trend is your friend until it bends. What Jay, myself and others are saying is,
a) we were here for the first part of the trend when we didn't think it was a trend.
b) we leveraged our collective ASSets when we were convinced it wasn't a trend.
c.) we soon watched the 2:30 buying program kick in and convince us that we were wrong.
It's hard for us believe that with as much capital that has been evolving that the trend hasn't changed. Yes there will be some bumps along the way. Is it more than a collective headfake by the governments of the third world? Who knows for sure? From my snippets of the brain drain, I tend to think China(breadth) is for real and India and Mexico(bright spots, but all bluster) aren't. We're just going with the flow.
I don't think R&D is purely a numbers game. I don't think you can just throw money at the problem.
Absolutely and whole heartedly true. However, discovery is. It's simply a matter of figuring out where to look (Research--the truly innovative work) and turning over the rocks(discovery--the not so innovative). How you turn over the rocks counts too(Development), and just as Japan has learned to improve process development(innovative), so can China. Much of research is discovery. Once you teach people to discover, you've taught them that by looking in the right places, you can get rich. You've taught them one of the peices of innovation with a pavlovian response, and you've taught them about risk. The average Japanese isn't about risk. That's why they don't borrow etc etc. I agree culturally they are different. Maybe it will require a few more busts and booms in the Chinese economy, but if you believe our economy is being tugged along by research, can you not then believe that China's is being pushed along by manufacturing growth? See the history here? Point people are making is resource wise the trend ain't in our favor and OBV doesn't look too good either.
This is why I'm not so sure I like outsourcing even modestly innovative work. After having said that, taking the IBM model of funding Open Source seems to suggest that one can do this. However, this will require nimble companies to be able to go with the flow. Because all companies(and in your case lazy programmers), cannot be so nimble, as Jay would say 'much dynamism will be released'. I tend to think that the economies of the world are not so nimble. So much economic dynamism, etc etc. down the food chain till you get to the most nimble unit.
Look at how the last round of innovation got started. IBM spent tons of money on R&D. They had Nobel Prize winning scientists on their payroll. They had beautiful facilities (I visited a number of them). But it was Steve Jobs and Bill Gates that took them to school and made the Internet possible.
OK, replace the words, IBM with US economy and academics, and Steve Jobs and Bill Gates with China, India etc. See a picture here? Again, I apply the appropriate brain drain caveats and you can apply the language ones. Unfortunately, I tend to think we inflate the real costs of our R & D at home(ala IBM) a lot more than the developing world(BG and Steve). When we supply them with the capital and the base technology, I'm not so sure we're prepared to take their work, be nimble and develop, support, exploit any faster than they will.
What do they have now that comes close to Stanford, MIT, Harvard, Berkeley, University of Michigan and so on.
I wonder whether or not the real question is. What is the capital barrier to creating a MIT, Harv, etc.? I just tend to think that the bright minds will go where the opportunity exists because the intellectual barriers may not be so high. My boss speaks Japanese, French and English. I think if I wanna be nimble I better learn a little less Spanish and a lot more Chinese.
Now if we're getting our collective teeth kicked in, the old national pride beast might awaken and things could change on a dime.
Voodoo |
