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Pastimes : Clown-Free Zone... sorry, no clowns allowed
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To: Knighty Tin who wrote (276361)2/5/2004 10:02:32 AM
From: mishedlo  Read Replies (2) of 436258
 
mish, my chart reading partner thinks rates are heading much lower. Though I expect that to happen, it will only happen AFTER a huge move up in rates. Printing money and credit the way we are does not make for easy deflation. And deflation dies as soon as China decides to stop accepting dollars at face value for their production.

What does your chart reading partner say about gold, silver, and the spoos? That is how I see things.

BTW I think you have it backwards. Until this debt is wiped away I do not think rates are headed anywhere but steady or down. That might be years. As for China, they will keep accepting our $ and keep doing what they are doing with them: buying oil, LNG, soybeans, copper, wool, etc. Right now it is win-win. Unless and until China does not need the US consumer to keep buying their goods, they will keep supporting the US$. Why shoudn't they? We get cheap goods, they get US$ and but commodities with it before the purchasing power falls thru the floor. If and when China becomes self-sustaining and thay have little use for US consumers, then and only then look out. That could be years away IMO. Hard to say but it sure is not this year and probably is not next year either. In the meantime if the US bubble pops first, rates here aren't going up either. They will be cut.

Treasury bears and interest rate bears will have their ass handed to them IMO.

M
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