I am not talking about missionary work. The mere absence of democracy, or presence of some abuses, is not sufficient reason to use military means to overthrow a regime. The regime must be unusually brutal. Furthermore, the population must be so repressed that it cannot take the lead in its own liberation (with our aid). Finally, as I already said, there must be a good chance of success.
Regarding Iraq, we acted when it became feasible to act, and when it was clear that internal dissent would not suffice to overthrow Saddam. There were, indeed, more reasons than the strictly humanitarian, involving the need to ensure that Saddam did not slip the noose of containment, and once again seek regional hegemony. The fact that he was diverting the proceeds from humanitarian oil sales, and allowing children to die, was already bringing calls to end sanctions, and if there had been a series of terrorist attacks on our forces in the Gulf, it was conceivable that the stomach to continue no- fly zones and the like would be lost. The threat of a fateful nexus between Saddam's regime and terrorists was too powerful to ignore. He was already funneling money to the families of suicide bombers, and had contacts with Al- Qaida, even if we do not know the precise nature of their understanding. Finally, Iraq was a key element of the impasse in the Middle East, and regime change there was likely to be productive in several other areas, such as dealing with other rogue regimes and moving the process along in Israel. All in all, there were plenty of reasons to act now.
As far as success goes, if we can get a more moderate regime, prevent the outbreak of civil war, and retain a base to help stabilize the area, we will have succeeded. Given the peculiar viciousness of the Husseins, it is hard not to succeed in getting a more moderate regime. As regards the outbreak of civil war, creating integrated, professional security forces is the best chance we have. And, it seems to me, enough leaders realize that no one wins if there is an explosion, that they will be glad to have the United States help out, even after the transfer of power. |
