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Biotech / Medical : Biotech Valuation
CRSP 53.98-2.0%3:59 PM EST
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To: software salesperson who wrote (10298)2/5/2004 4:39:02 PM
From: Biomaven  Read Replies (1) of 52153
 
Thanks, Ian and sales.

Googling "delphi" gets a bunch more examples.

In the context of biotech investing, a simpler version than I just proposed would also be interesting - take some upcoming event and ask people to give their predictions of the likelihood of various outcomes and what the market reaction would be to each of them.

For example (to pick something close to home):

A. What are probabilities of the following Estorra outcomes by the PDUFA date at month end:

1. Approval with short term label

2. Approval with long term label

3. Approvable

4. Not approvable

5. No decision

B. What would be the price move associated with each of these outcomes?

Peter
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