In all, there are 3,520 pledged delegates and 802 superdelegates. Counting both types of delegates, Kerry leads with 260, followed by 121 for Dean, 107 for Edwards and 81 for Clark, according to the Associated Press. A candidate must amass 2,161 delegates to win the nomination.
Dean endorsements holding for now despite hard times
By Toby Eckert
signonsandiego.com
WASHINGTON – When it looked like Howard Dean was the man to beat for the Democratic presidential nomination, the endorsements rolled in – from members of Congress, unions and even former Vice President Al Gore.
They helped Dean, a former Vermont governor running as the consummate outsider, gain an aura of momentum, credibility among the Democratic establishment, organizational muscle and, perhaps most tangibly, "superdelegates" to the party's nominating convention.
But with Dean's campaign on the ropes, the endorsements have slowed to a trickle, if not entirely dried up. Those who have already signed on are fretting and pondering what to do next, albeit privately for the most part. And some of them are being quietly courted by the other candidates, notably Sens. John Kerry, D-Mass., and John Edwards, D-N.C.
So far, there have been no high-profile defections.
"I don't think most of them are going to jump ship unless he stays in the race after his goose is fully cooked," said Norman Ornstein, a political expert at the American Enterprise Institute think tank.
Dean indicated on Thursday that he would fold his campaign if he loses the Feb. 17 primary in Wisconsin, where he is focusing his energy after failing to win a single binding contest so far. (Dean won the nominal Jan. 13 Washington, D.C., primary, but it awarded no delegates and no other major candidates participated.)
"A win (in Wisconsin) will carry us to the big states of March 2 and narrow the field to two candidates. Anything less will put us out of this race," he said in an e-mail to supporters.
Dean's most prominent backers have stood by him despite his dramatic fall from front-runner since the Jan. 19 Iowa caucuses. He finished third in that race, a distant second in New Hampshire and won in none of the seven states that held contests on Tuesday.
"As a measure of my optimism, I'm presiding over delegate selection for Dean on Sunday," said Rep. Zoe Lofgren, D-San Jose, referring to meetings in California this weekend where the people who would represent Dean at the party's nominating convention – assuming he wins any delegates in the state's March 2 primary – will be chosen.
Those delegates, known as "pledged" delegates because they are bound to support a particular candidate, are apportioned to the candidates through a formula based on the number of votes they get statewide and in each congressional district in a state. So even though Dean hasn't outright won a single primary or caucus, he still has collected 23 pledged delegates, compared to 177 for Kerry, 84 for Edwards and 50 for retired Army Gen. Wesley Clark.
According to informal surveys, Dean has the largest number of non-binding commitments from "superdelegates," explaining why he remains second in the overall delegate sweepstakes. They are people like Lofgren, one of 37 members of Congress to endorse him.
Other superdelegates include members of the Democratic National Committee, governors, other elected officials and "distinguished" party leaders, including former presidents and vice presidents.
California delivered a mother lode of endorsements for Dean, including Rep. Bob Filner, D-San Diego, seven other members of the Democratic congressional delegation, Attorney General Bill Lockyer, Secretary of State Kevin Shelley and incoming Assembly Speaker Fabian Nunez.
In all, there are 3,520 pledged delegates and 802 superdelegates. Counting both types of delegates, Kerry leads with 260, followed by 121 for Dean, 107 for Edwards and 81 for Clark, according to the Associated Press. A candidate must amass 2,161 delegates to win the nomination.
"He has the second-highest amount of delegates behind Senator Kerry, and the campaign continues to receive large amounts of donations on the Internet," Lofgren said, explaining her continued faith in Dean's strategy.
But superdelegates are free to switch allegiances, so Dean's tally could collapse as rapidly as his one-time front-runner status if he fails to win a primary or caucus soon.
"I think that will become apparent after Wisconsin," said Sherry Bebitch Jeffe, a political expert at the University of Southern California. "You dance with the guy that brung ya. I think (Dean supporters) fear they'd be attacked by the media, if no one else, for deserting a sinking ship."
That hasn't kept Dean's rivals from reaching out to superdelegates, both those who endorsed Dean and those who remain uncommitted. It probably isn't because the officials can sway a lot of votes in their home states.
"If you look at the last six weeks and go from Al Gore to (Iowa Sen.) Tom Harkin to (South Carolina Rep.) Jim Clyburn, it's very hard to say they've put their candidates over the top," said Ornstein, referring to endorsements of Dean by the first two and Clyburn's embrace of Kerry, who lost South Carolina.
The "invisible primary" among superdelegates is more important for cementing a candidate's front-runner status.
"They now want to have, as Dean had, this sort of element of inevitability descend over their campaign," Ornstein said.
Superdelegates would also be important in a closely contested primary battle, in the unlikely event no candidate arrives at the convention with a lock on the nomination.
"We think this could be a delegate war and since every member (of Congress) is a delegate, we want to sign up as many of them as possible," Steve Elmendorf, Kerry's deputy campaign manager, told Roll Call, a newspaper that covers Capitol Hill.
Alan Abramowitz, an Emory University expert on the nominating process, said: "The most likely scenario is Kerry will lock up the nomination on March 2. But if that doesn't happen, if Edwards can become the serious challenger to Kerry or if Kerry makes some big mistake or something, then it's possible that the superdelegates are important."
Even more coveted than superdelegate endorsements is the support of organized labor, which is valued for its ability to raise money, run ads and get out the vote on behalf of favored candidates.
Dean has the endorsement of powerful unions representing government and service industry workers and, so far, they haven't deserted him.
"His proven track record on health care and other issues important to working families is why (our) members decided to endorse ... Dean– and that is why they continue to stand strong with him now," Andy Stern, president of the Service Employees International Union, said in a written statement.
A spokeswoman for the American Federation of State, County and Municipal Employees echoed that sentiment.
Ornstein said the unions "will stick with Dean for their own credibility." |
