Understanding the structure of the deficit is helpful. As an example, here are Clinton's last 4 years (not his last 4 budgets, since the last budget overlapped Bush):
The first number is the "Public Debt" and the second the "Total Debt or National Debt". Clinton claimed he ran surpluses for these four years. In fact, he did reduce the Public Debt every year, but the National Debt increased.
Ending Year:
09/29/2000 $3,405,303,490,221.20 $5,674,178,209,886.86
09/30/1999 $3,636,104,594,501.81 $5,656,270,901,633.43
09/30/1998 $3,733,864,472,163.53 $5,526,193,008,897.62
09/30/1997 $3,789,667,546,849.60 $5,413,146,011,397.34
By law, the General Fund must borrow any money in the Trust Fund. So it is possible to argue that Clinton actually did run a surplus each of these years. Both numbers are important for different reasons. When American Spirit writes about a $850 Billion deficit he is discussing the increase in the total National Debt. When Bush talks about a $521 Billion deficit, he is just talking about the increase in the Public Debt.
Of course, it is true that Bush has underestimated the deficits for each of the last 3 years. In January 2002, Bush forecast the deficit would be $14 Billion in 2005. I think he will miss that number by a significant margin! |
