Hello Elmat, I had lunch today with my usual group of buddies and talked about this, that, and 2004 investment moves. The guy managing the biggest pot said (I paraphrase):
“I am not doing much. I am feeling lazy. I am figuring that the US market will go up in the first half, incorporating a intermediate low by March, and rise into the election. Bush will win the election, or the election is his to lose. The issue is what happens after November? It doesn’t matter who wins, the imbalances in the US economy needs to be worked out, and they are not being worked out now. I am shorting XYZ now at 2.60 because AUD is going up, and XYZ export will be crushed, their balance sheet book value is suspect, and the share will head to 1.50”
The second guy says he is holding crude shipping shares because of China import requirements. He is ready to add on any softness.
The third guy is buying Beijing real estate at 15% discount to market price, waiting for RMB revaluation.
I said I am afraid, as everyone and his mother have 2004 figured out already and I am flying blind, 5 feet off the ground, at 1000 kilometers an hour, through the forest, carrying over-sized and over-weight luggage.
THe folks around the table all feel Bush will win, unless he chooses to lose. The thoughts were that the Democrats may win because Bush may lose, and if so, the Democrat president will try to keep the ‘reflation’ going for another 4 years, running America into the wall by taxing and spending. If Bush wins, he may continue to gun the fiscal/monetary engines now that he then does not have re-election to worry about, by borrowing and spending. In either case, the USD will get crushed.
First guy figures that Bush can also act responsible and step on the breaks of monetary/fiscal engines now that he then does not have re-election to worry about.
Either way, something will break in 2005.
We talked about interest rate, as in ‘when will interest rate rise’. No conclusion.
Chugs, Jay |
