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Strategies & Market Trends : Booms, Busts, and Recoveries
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To: Mary Cluney who wrote (45731)2/7/2004 12:08:55 AM
From: Maurice Winn  Read Replies (1) of 74559
 
Mary, China's success doesn't depend on the USA's failure. On the contrary, both depend on each other and everyone else on Earth to do well.

The more the merrier in economic systems. Unit costs go down as numbers go up. We now have 6 billion people who can each provide 1c to a company in exchange for an invention costing $60 million to develop.

Even with the low incomes of India, they can afford 1c if the invention is cheap enough. Software, ASICs and lots of things are very cheap to produce once the development work is done. Millions or billions of copies of software can be downloaded at near zero cost. Cyberphone ASICs can be produced 100 million at a time with a marginal cost of production of almost nothing. That's quite different from producing a house or car, where the marginal cost of production isn't low and very, very different from a gold or platinum bracelet where the marginal cost of production is very high.

China seems likely to do what Singapore did by way of economic development, but on a grand scale.

All Chinese want cyberphones [though they don't know it yet]. That means QUALCOMM technology. They will sell their gold to get CDMA cyberphones. Watch the young ones. They know where the action is. They aren't blowing their money on gold baubles. They are buying the latest cyberphone technology downloading BREW applications [or will be when they find out about it].

Mqurice
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