nsp thought you would appreciate Russell's brief comments from today:
<February 7, 2004 -- A lot of interesting reading matter for the weekend after my sign-off signature, but first a few words about the market.
Shocker, shocker -- business is good and according to your local paper, getting better. Presidential election years are great for the market. President Bush and his crowd are confident, and the Dems are in disarray.
And crazy Richard Russell is saying what? I'm saying that the market top is in. I'll post my "Top-Out Parade Number 2" again on Monday's site, but by now you should have printed off a copy. In that way, you can check off the items yourself -- to see if they can -- or are -- breaking out to new highs. I'm betting that a long list of averages and indices have seen their highs, and that one by one, average by average, index by index, we're going to see these items fall by the wayside.
If so, then the bear market correction is over, and the bear is in command again.
With the McClellan Oscillator coming off a big drop down to minus 209, I expect unusual volatility from here as the stock market whips back and forth with probably a new Oscillator low ahead -- a plunge that will take the Oscillator below its preceding minus 209 level.
If I'm correct about the stock market, then we're going to see a wild fight for the Presidency. It's going to be a brutal battle because President Bush has been depending on a healthy economy, and I don't think he's going to get what he wants (despite all of Alan Greenspan's efforts). So let me put it this way -- if you like surprises the rest of this year is going to give you all the surprises you want. And the first surprise may well come from the stock market.
Hint -- keep your eyes on the new lows that are posted on my site every day. The most new lows so far has only been 13 recorded on Feb. 5. If the market is in the gradual process of topping out, we should see an increasing number of new lows. So let's watch for them.
All this means that (except for golds) you should either be out of common stocks or at least have close stop losses under all stocks that you hold. High-grade bonds are OK if you're willing to sit with them to maturity.
Gold? I think there's a good chance that gold and gold shares have seen their bottoms, but I look for a lot of volatility in gold. Should you add to your gold and gold shares? My answer is "Yes, but do it conservatively and not on a trading basis. Golds are a long hold."
And that, dear subscribers, does it for weekend.
Russell> |
