Mikie:
Like Crystallex and IPMCF and the Telbel, a real mine that was salted to double its grade, and New Cinch and Bre-X and Myer Rush, et al, there are many stories in the Naked City.
Our crystal ball lets us know only so much about the future. We can predict a lot, but there are always surprises. Beware of any story that is too perfect, where the promotion is too smooth. Above all don't pre-judge out of hope. Deny all perfection and wishful thinking.
Sell shares like they were day old bread. The only paper to keep has pictures of heads of state on it. And don't keep that for long either.
Never, never be afraid to take a reasonable profit.
At one time my father bought 50,000 shares of Denison Mines (1956 or so). He bought at 50 cents and it sprang to 1.50. He debated selling and conferred with a geologist. The geologist, who went on to become the VP of Western Mining for Cominco, was equivocal. My father sold. The stock went to 90 dollars. Did he do wrong? Was the geo wrong? Well yes, but no also. It is not illegal to take a profit. It never is. It is never wrong. What you don't absolutely know, you cannot help.
I will admit one thing. I don't absolutely know that IMA does not have an orebody. I don't absolutely know that if they do, they cannnot develop it. I don't absolutely know if AQI will sue them and if they do, I don't know that AQI will win. And I have no clue when this will all take place. I also do not know that IMA will not go higher.
But on the other hand I would be just as foolish to bet that I did know.
It's a religion to believe either way. It ain't a science.
It's a dead gamble.
At least hold a few baskets of those kind of gambles.
Life is full of surprises and your investment career if we are to believe you has been based on taking long shots on single stocks, and winning an losing big. This syndrome, no matter how artfully applied, is known as gambler's addiction. It is part of the pattern of gambler's ruin. It is often talked about in mathematical treatises on probability. It is possible to show how you will always lose if you gamble in a certain manner against known odds. On the other hand it is possible to show how you can refrain from losing by hedging your bets if the odds can be stacked slightly in your favour.
The above paragraph is not a trivial declamation. It deserves to be studied thoroughly as Shannon, the father of information theory did. He demonstrated in the 50's how it was possible by studying volatility and probability to always shave points in your favour if you managed money correctly and watched patterns of change in prices. This was again demonstrated by a Brazilian Millionaire in the late 60's who showed the same technique in a landmark book on money management and stock point systems.
Good luck with it. We all have a bit of it. The trick is to manage your money. That is the cold blooded art which balances the too hopeful heart that many of us possess.
You are currently sitting on a near 200% gain in value. If you sold 1/3 of your stock you would ride totally free shares which total 2/3's of your original buy. If you do not do so, with the risk inherent in this play, you are just being foolish.
Unless you are trying to hurt yourself or punish yourself for some imagined sin, it would pay to look at this opportunity with a sober clear mind.
EC<:-} |
