Follow this.
If you put your money in the bank, and you go there the next day, there is a huge chance it will be all there. This huge chance is called the probability. It can be quantified. Of all the days and all the banks it is a finite number. It is somewhere around 99.9999 per cent chance you will have the same money in it unless your wife has access to it.
If you put your money in a stock and wait till the next day, there is a finite chance that a bit of will be lost. Of all the stock and all the days this number has to even out to somwhere around 50%. So you have to even out the odds with stocks. We do this by analysing patterns of volatility called TA, or by fundamentals over time. We ignore the short term swings and promotional overboughtness a bit for fundamentals to be effective. Sometimes we have to ignore it a lot.
So how do you quantify the odds in stocks? The only way is by points in favour and points against. Add up your points.
Don't be prejudiced and argue eventualities just the real points.
1. lawsuit probabilities
2. possible metallurgical problems
3. known laws against mining in the state
4. State's history of crookedness
5. success ratio of miners in this state
6. money in kitty of company.
7. mining history of players and company
8. mining history and likelihood of average VSE company
9. number of scams on the VSE
10. perceived value of stock at present (high or low)
The way to answer these questions is not to ask yourself, as you lie to yourself if you are an addicted gambler, but to ask disinterested people. Sideline observers with no prejudice. Then when you have really pointed the bad against the good you assign a risk factor to the stock and play it accordingly. If you are honest with yourself and used to reigning in your own excesses, it is easy. If you have the gambler's habit and while you can identify interesting plays you have a habit of getting hooked on the promotion and stock price swings, then working with someone who can advise you is the best bet.
I think if you assign risk points to IMA, you will see that we are at less than a 50% chance it won't drop out of bed at some point.. which I don't care to quantify.. and take your savings with it. Believe it, it has happened to me. And when the VSE stocks drop they are like Starfighters after a flame out. They fly like cold bricks.
If you believe the stock may go higher, then base it on what is really happening, not what you wish would happen. Then TA will tell you when to abandon the ship. And that point is always there.
IMA is headed for better of worse into an uncertain future.
The point is not what size the mine will be, but when to unload the paper, before something goes obviously wrong. That sweating point should be sooner not later. If you can unload and ride the risk with free stock then you have a modicum of brains. You are prepared for bad surprises. Good ones are no never mind. Being prepared for them means travelling light.
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