Uh-Oh: Big Mo No Mo'
George Bush's run of bad news looks like an opening for Democrats, but he's got a plan
By Kenneth T. Walsh - US News
George W. Bush has hit a rough patch. The federal deficit has soared to an estimated $521 billion this year, reviving charges that he is fiscally reckless. His $2.4 trillion budget proposal is under attack for misplaced priorities. The cost of his prescription-drug plan has ballooned way beyond initial projections, rattling conservatives. He was pressured last week into naming a special panel to investigate intelligence failures prior to the invasion of Iraq and into supporting a two-month extension of the deadline for completing an independent probe of 9/11. "His hold on the country is eroding," says presidential historian Robert Dallek. "He's lost credibility . . . I think he's in real trouble."
That's certainly what the Democrats are hoping for. Week after week, the party's presidential candidates have been battering Bush on all fronts, driving his job-approval rating lower and lower. Last week, it sank below 50 percent--to 49--for the first time in his presidency, according to one poll. "It would have been really unusual if Bush had maintained his stratospheric approval ratings," says Rutgers political scientist Ross K. Baker. "It defied the law of political gravity. . . . Now the president has suffered some cuts and is experiencing some bleeding."
Bush aides predict that this will change as soon as he starts to punch back. To that end, Republicans have mapped out an aggressive TV ad campaign in key markets around the country, set to gear up after the Democratic nomination is decided, possibly within the next few weeks. Bush advisers, U.S. News has learned, have studied Bill Clinton's early ad barrage in 1996 and have concluded that it framed the general election campaign to Clinton's great advantage. Bush wants to do the same thing--using some of his $150 million campaign war chest. The GOP ads will portray Bush as a decisive, results-oriented leader while the Democrats are billed as out of sync in their push for tax hikes, more social programs, and a less military-oriented foreign policy.
Bush keeps track of the Democratic campaign more closely than he lets on. After every major event, such as last week's round of seven primaries, the president gets detailed briefings from his aides on what happened and why. He has been struck, among other things, by how fast Howard Dean spent his campaign stash, which Bush saw as a sign of fiscal indiscipline and plain bad judgment. And he has been impressed by John Kerry's refusal to panic and to remain steady despite adversity.
Fodder for the GOP. While being careful to show respect for Kerry as a war hero, the president's aides insist the Massachusetts senator is vulnerable on several fronts. They plan to attack him for voting against various defense budgets, opposing the first Persian Gulf War, and fighting against funding increases for the intelligence community. On domestic issues, Bush strategists say Kerry voted against a balanced budget five times, and the programs he is proposing will increase the deficit by $1 trillion over four years. Adds Matthew Dowd, the Bush campaign's chief strategist: "People don't know who John Kerry is from a policy perspective and in terms of personality and temperament." The GOP's job will be to fill in the blanks. Dowd notes, for example, that Kerry has taken many contributions from lobbyists while he has criticized the influence of special interests in Washington. "On the issue of special interests," Dowd says, "John Kerry has left himself open to a charge of hypocrisy because he's saying one thing and doing another." All this will be fodder for Bush's campaign commercials.
One issue that has the Republicans worried is the loss of an estimated 2.5 million manufacturing jobs during Bush's presidency. This could make it tough for Bush to win swing states like Pennsylvania, Ohio, and Michigan, since those jobs aren't expected to return anytime soon.
"This is a transformative election," says Ken Mehlman, Bush's campaign manager, "because of the fact that the issues before our country are so big and the visions are so different, and in an election like that you're going to have both sides energized." For his part, aides say, Bush is ready for the Democrats to bring it on. |
