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Strategies & Market Trends : Booms, Busts, and Recoveries

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To: tradermike_1999 who started this subject	2/9/2004 11:36:56 AM
From: isopatch	Read Replies (1) of 74559

The empty G-7 statement & the Longer Term global outlook: Likely there'll be some face saving intervention this week to try and obscure the reality that this meeting accomplished nothing AFA the most important global economic issues that need to be addressed. So, IMHO? After a short period of trendless trading with lots of intervention noise on the tape, we go right back to the trends that were in place before the meeting. And those continue to be dominated by the every man for himself policies each individual nation is pursuing that amount to a de facto trade war between the dollar and Euro currency blocks. As in the 1930s those policies are dominated by fears of the rising domestic unemployment due to the loss of domestic and international markets in the those nations with appreciating currencies vs those attached to the devaluig dollar. And the fallout of this competitive devaluation policy continues to add to the dangerous global trade and financial imbalances. As I've said many times in posts the past few years, each temporary reflation effort we've seen sinc 9/11 (that has positively impacted the stock market, a broad range of commodities and real estate) has not been sustainable because of the overwhelming debt burden, particularly in the USA. And the current one is no different. I see NO evidence that Greensputin is pursuing a Weimar style hyper-inflationary monetary policy. In fact, just the opposite is the case as these these charts of the monetary aggregates clearly show: martincapital.com martincapital.com So, it's worth repeating my read of the longer term macro picture that a primary secular deflationary forces will reassert itself after the US elections, and strongly so, in 2005. Tic toc Isopatch

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