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Strategies & Market Trends : The Epic American Credit and Bond Bubble Laboratory
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To: russwinter who wrote (7472)2/9/2004 5:16:06 PM
From: mishedlo  Read Replies (1) of 110194
 
Inflation. A rebound in the economy is generally accompanied by an increase in both inflation and interest rates, but not this time. In November the inflation rate fell to its lowest level in 40 years. Even with industrial production improving and housing markets strengthening, the consumer price index dropped 0.2 percent,
bringing the annual rate of inflation to 1.8 percent for 2003. The core rate of inflation, excluding food and energy, dropped by 0.1 percent, the first decline seen in the core rate since 1982. One reason for this behavior could be that both ample capacity in manufacturing and unemployment are putting downward pressure on prices. Inflation may have bottomed out and it should remain subdued in the near term. Consumer prices could rise about 1.3 percent in the first half of 2004. Then as employment begins to improve in the second half of the year, we could see another increase in prices. cber.cba.ua.edu
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Russ I know you discard the CPI (as do I, but the first DROP since 1982!!). The problem I have with CPI is that it ignores food and energy and has other problems but let's be realistic, just what is going up other than commodities, housing, medical costs, food, and energy (of which NONE of those other than housing has much to do with FED interest rates).
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