from GS: Amgen Inc. EPS (FY Dec) 2004E $2.39, 2005E $2.84 Outperform/Neutral (AMGN) $64.86 Biogen Idec, Inc. EPS (FY Dec) 2003E $1.00, 2004E $1.49 Outperform/Neutral
(BIIB) $43.50
At a dermatology meeting, AMGN, BIIB & DNA presented incrementally positive
data on psoriasis with Enbrel. Amevive & Raptiva, respectively. Unlike Amevive &
Raptiva, Enbrel has not been approved for psoriasis. However, we expect Enbrel to
be the preferred agent after launch in Q2/04 based on the best combination of
efficacy, long term safety & onset of action. We estimate sales potential of $0.5B,
$0.2-0.3B, and $0.2-0.3B for Enbrel, Amevive & Raptiva, respectively. ABT
presented positive Phase II data on a competitive agent, Humira. We do not expect
product launch before 2006, 2-3 yrs behind the other agents. The most direct
competition for Humira is JNJ's Remicade. Enbrel should remain competitive based
on long term safety. We maintain our est. & Outperform rating for AMGN, BIIB &
DNA. Our coverage view is Neutral. The risks include slower sales, development
failures, reimbursement cuts & patent disputes. |
