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Strategies & Market Trends : The Epic American Credit and Bond Bubble Laboratory

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To: gregor_us who wrote (7517)	2/10/2004 1:01:07 AM
From: CalculatedRisk	Read Replies (1) of 110194

lambeth-palace, I caught Soros on CNBC this afternoon, and he thinks the bust is coming in 2005. I still think it might be sooner. This thread has a split personality (all smart people), but it seems half think we are headed for a crack-up boom, and the other half are more optimistic and think we are going to suffer through an extended period of slow growth or even deflation (I'm in this 2nd camp). SI's good friend, Fleck, thinks "all roads led to inflation." Here are his most recent comments: moneycentral.msn.com (Usually I find myself agreeing with Fleck, but this time I think he might be wrong) I wish we had fiscal flexibility to counter the job losses associated with slow growth, or especially if we slip into deflation. The Fed's quiver is out of arrows (although we both predicted the Fed would cut again, what use is 25 or 50 bps?), and Bush has filled the Treasury's piggy bank with IOUs. Even my suggestion of intervention in the 10 year is fraught with peril; talk about a free fall for the dollar! This post of the European Banker's comments is very insightful: Message 19787931 Interesting times. Best to all, Bill

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