Roebear. Because this has been a liquidity driven market
environment that lifted almost all sectors, since mid 2003, expect the choking off of liquidity to do the same thing on the downside.
Just posted this more detailed overview of this on the Natural Resource Stocks thread:
Message 19792563
<IAC. Wish I could see it as a ST maneuver to cool things
down. Don't like being this bearish.
Ain' as much fun as being a big bull, on my sector, in the context of a flat to higher broad market per forecast posts from end last November into January. And that played out exactly according to the script.
But, the longer period period monetary charts make that stance impossible to sustain. By now, Greenman has dug himself just too deep a hole:
martincapital.com
martincapital.com
There's no way to turn numbers at negative as that around quickly enuf to avoid a lot of damage to the markets AWA the real economy. If the FED had taken a less extreme course? Sure. But they haven't.
Again per the article quoted from earlier:
<one must take note of the fact that the broad US money supply has just recently suffered its biggest percentage contraction in several decades.>
This is extreme and IMO irresponsible behavior on the part of this FED. And, I don't see any way to avoid - at least - a major market correction in 10% to 20% range, before even the most frantic of panic FED easings can stem the blood letting. Greenspan has dramatically mismanaged monetary policy several times since the mid-1990s. But, this is the worst yet. It's <retire or fire> time, IMHO.
This is the most bearish I've been on the markets and the economy, in several years. Maybe I'm wrong. But, the evidence above says otherwise.
Until I see signs of that changing? All I'm going to do is play a good ST set-up, here and there, with cash reserves staying in the 75-85% range.
Iso has shifted to Capital Preservation mode. Can't afford to wait till the last minute to hunker down, either. My net worth has gotten too large to have the luxury of being able to go to cash in a few days. And if I'm right about how fast and severe this sell off is going to be when it hits? Being even weeks too early will prove to have been a wise move vs being even one day late.
Isopatch> |
