JW,
debt paydown, not a chance
Au contraire, my man. You are talking statistics, I am talking REAL events. Actually, I am trying to add a little balance from my small corner of the world.
Now before you fly off the handle, ggg, let me clarify something you may have missed in my original post.
I said "folks who ran up debts during the booming 90's may now be paying down their debts." [emphasis added].
I was talking current events, as recent as the last few weeks. Data I garner by talking to people on the streets,
in malls or stores, by overhearing conversations in groups, paying attention to banter at work, noting what real people are saying in stories in local papers, local talk radio shows, etc. etc.
I take my job seriously and I consider my real job to be a Speculator, one who observes, examines or even:
Speculate
Etymology: Latin speculatus, past participle of speculari to spy out, examine, from specula watchtower, from specere to look, look at --
So we really are talking apples and oranges. You are talking data which is an abstraction and condensation of the economic reality of a whole nation. A comprehensive work it is true, but still subject to the reporters of data and the collators of data. I am talking my own speculators observations, anecdotal, obviously subject to my own bias, but nontheless very real samples from real life. Also grossly different in magnitude, a very small sample. Statisticians would ignore it, yet I believe there is some validity to the effort I make to talk to strangers in shops and malls, to business people, in short to my speculating efforts in the old meaning of the word.
It helps balance the statistics.
You are macro, I am micro, I look for congruence or divergence between the two viewpoints.
Another thing I said in my original post was " I believe those figures lag quite a bit." Your latest figures are from 3Q2003, my latest anecdotal figures, given only on a micro and relative basis, are from this week. Obviously what I am doing is trying to spot a trend before it shows up in your figures from Economagic. I sincerely believe I would spot the trend before Economagic does, IF I do my job as a "Speculator" well.
Would I base an investment or trading decision only upon my own "speculative" anecdotes?? Absolutely not, but I do look for the congruence and divergence between what I observe and what figures are telling me.
After all, one cannot declare some figures sacrosanct and other figures flawed without coming to the conclusion that "Figures don't lie but liars can figure".
To be fair I must add as caveat this from Mark Twain:
Figures often beguile me, particularly when I have the arranging of them myself; in which case the remark attributed to Disraeli would often apply with justice and force: "There are three kinds of lies: lies, damned lies and statistics."
- Autobiography of Mark Twain
VBG,
Roebear |
